摘要
本文采用重心理论分析了中国三大平原玉米种植面积、单产的时空差异和生产集中度的区域分布特征以及生产重心的变化轨迹。基于2001—2019年的数据,计算了三大平原12个省份的玉米区位熵指数,并运用空间杜宾模型探索玉米生产布局变迁的驱动因素。结果表明:三大平原的玉米生产重心经历了从东北平原到华北平原再到东北平原的转移;自然因素、经济发展、要素投入、技术进步和政策都是影响玉米生产布局的重要因素,其中政策的影响最大。因此,建议政府针对主产区制定差异化政策,保障玉米种植的效益,同时继续完善农田水利设施建设,加大科技成果转化和应用,促进玉米产业的健康持续发展。
In this paper, center of gravity theory was used to analyze the regional distribution characteristics of maize planting area, yield differences and production concentration in the three major plains of China, as well as the change trajectory of production center of gravity. Based on the data from 2001 to 2019, the maize location entropy index of 12 provinces in the three plains was calculated, and the spatial Dubin model was used to explore the driving factors of the change of maize production layout. The results show that the center of gravity of maize production in the three plains has undergone a shift from the Northeast Plain to the North China Plain to the Northeast Plain. Natural factors, economic development, factor input, technological progress and policies are all important factors affecting the layout of corn production, of which policies have the greatest impact. Therefore, it is recommended that the government formulate differentiated policies for the main producing areas to ensure the benefits of corn planting, while continuing to improve the construction of farmland water conservancy facilities, increasing the transformation and application of scientific and technological achievements, and promoting the healthy and sustainable development of the corn industry.
作者
刘绍熹
刘帅
LIU Shaoxi;LIU Shuai
出处
《世界农业》
2023年第1期89-98,共10页
World Agriculture
基金
国家社会科学基金项目“玉米收储政策改革的效率检视、目标评估与政策优化研究”(20BJY147),国家社会科学基金重大项目“我国三大平原‘资源—要素—政策’相协调的粮食和生态‘双安全’研究”(20&ZD094)。
