摘要
目的建立空间自回归模型,分析海拔、人口密度等因素与肺结核报告发病率之间的关系,为制定科学的疾病防控措施提供参考依据。方法收集四川省2017—2021年各县区分年报告的活动性肺结核、病原学阳性肺结核患者数、当地人口数,选取海拔、人口密度2个因素做影响因素分析,采用GeoDa软件建立一阶空间自回归模型、空间误差回归模型、空间滞后回归模型,比较拟合优度选择最优模型,获得具有统计意义的变量,即有参考价值的空间分布影响因素。P<0.05为差异有统计学意义。结果2017—2021年各年无论是活动性肺结核,还是其中的病原学阳性肺结核,均为空间误差回归模型拟合度最优,海拔对报告发病率影响均是正向的,回归系数在0.002~0.060之间,P均<0.05;各年无论是活动性肺结核,还是其中的病原学阳性肺结核,人口密度对报告发病率影响均没有统计学意义,P均>0.05。结论各年空间自回归模型分析的结果均表明海拔与肺结核报告发病率呈正相关,提示须切实关注高海拔地区结核病防控水平以提高防控效果。
Objective To analyze the relationship between altitudes、population density and reported incidence of pulmonary TB by establishing the spatial autoregressive model,so as to provide a reference basis for formulating scientific measures for disease prevention and control.Methods The materials included annual records of active tuberculosis、number of patients with pathogen detection positive pulmonary tuberculosis,the number of local population for the year in county of Sichuan Province from 2017 to 2021 were collected.We selected altitudes and population density as influencing factors for analysis by spatial autoregressive model,the first order spatial autoregressive model、spatial error regression model and spatial lag regression model were established by GeoDa software,the optimal model were selected by comparing the goodness of fit,and obtained the statistically significant variables,namely the influence factors of space distribution with a reference value.The difference was considered statitically significant when P<0.05.Results Every year from 2017 to 2021,both active tuberculosis and pathogen detection positive tuberculosis,the fitting degrees of the spatial error model were all optimal,the effect of altitude on reported incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis was positive,regression coefficients were between 0.002 and 0.060,P<0.05,every year from 2017 to 2021,both active tuberculosis and pathogen detection positive tuberculosis,population density had no statistical significance on the reported incidence impact,all P>0.05.Conclusions The results of the spatial autoregressive model in every year all showed that altitude was positively related to the reported incidence of pulmonary TB,which suggested that we should pay close attention to the level of tuberculosis prevention and control in high-altitude regions to improve prevention and control effectiveness.
作者
王丹霞
陈闯
夏岚
李婷
逯嘉
夏勇
WANG Dan-xia;CHEN Chuang;XIA Lan;LI Ting;LU Jia;XIA Yong(Sichuan Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Chengdu 610041,Sichuan Province,China.)
出处
《预防医学情报杂志》
CAS
2022年第12期1535-1540,共6页
Journal of Preventive Medicine Information
关键词
肺结核
空间自回归模型
报告发病率
海拔
人口密度
pulmonary tuberculosis
spatial autoregressive model
reported incidence
altitude
population density
