摘要
构建一个包含购房贷款的动态一般均衡模型,分析中美居民贷款模式差异对房价和消费关系的影响。研究发现:(1)住房偏好冲击会导致中国房价上涨时,消费下降;(2)中国居民采取购房贷款,会使得本来处于下降状态的消费进一步下降,住房偏好冲击通过购房贷款影响居民资金在购房、消费和偿还贷款三类支出中的配置;(3)美国居民更倾向于抵押贷款,其通过跨期收入转移促进了房屋偏好冲击时消费的增长;(4)中国累进房地产税税率设计可以缓解对居民消费的挤出效应。
This study constructs a dynamic general equilibrium model including housing loans and analyzes the influence of the residential loan model on the relationship between housing prices and consumption.The results are as follow:(1)a housing preference shock will lead to a decline in consumption when house prices rise in China;(2)the impact of the shock in China has been amplified by residents who hold more loans for home purchases without refinancing;these shocks influence residents’capital allocation in different expenditures through housing loans;and(3)American residents prefer mortgage loans,which promotes consumption growth when housing preference shocks through intertemporal income transfer;(4)progressive property tax can alleviate the crowding out effect on consumption in China.
作者
吕敏
牟丹
王文甫
LÜ Min;MU Dan;WANG Wenfu(School of Public Finance and Taxation,Southwestern University of Finance and Economics,Chengdu 611130,China;School of Economics,Sichuan University,Chengdu 611130,China)
出处
《中国软科学》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2022年第10期166-179,共14页
China Soft Science
基金
国家社科基金项目“中国宏观经济不确定性测量、效应及其传到机制研究”(18BJL027)
教育部人文社科基金项目“税收驱动小微企业内生发展的实证研究与政策设计”(20XJA790004)。
关键词
购房贷款
抵押贷款
居民消费不足
房地产税
居民资金分配
house purchase loan
mortgage loans
insufficient consumption of residents
real estate tax
distribution of expenditure
