摘要
西方国家经历城市化后,乡村人口自然收缩,区域整体协调发展,成为发达国家、地区的重要现象。研究典型发达国家的乡村人口收缩的过程,分析导致人口变动的主要成因,对研究中国式现代化背景下我国的乡村振兴与城乡融合发展具有启示意义。文章在辨析美国乡村界定方法的基础上,基于2000—2019年美国1947个乡村县区人口增长率,识别收缩县区;结合冷热点分析法,确定持续收缩、增长收缩、收缩回升的典型区。通过构建“定量+定性”分析框架,从经济、人口、社会的视角选择4个综合指标,通过回归系数识别影响美国乡村人口变动的主要影响因素,发现:(1)人口的机械变动对人口总量变动的影响更大;(2)老龄化及族裔水平、综合经济水平分别是影响美国乡村地区人口自然、机械增长率的主要因素;(3)对比各典型区的人口变动的相关系数差异,结合案例,将3个持续收缩区分别归纳为“矿业衰竭型”“传统农业型”“长期贫困型”,将3个人口波动区归纳为“油(气)产业波动型”“行政因素型”,其中综合经济水平及其带动的就业、收入等,是决定乡村地区人口能否回升的最重要因素。最后探讨美国乡村人口收缩研究对我国乡村振兴问题的借鉴意义。
Subsequent to the urbanization of Western countries,the shrinkage of rural population and the overall coordinated development of regions have become a remarkable phenomenon.The study of the rural population shrinking process in Western countries and the analysis of the population change’s main causes are of great significance to study the rural revitalization and urban-rural integration in in China,particularly in the context of Beijing’s promotion of Chinese path to modernization.Through an analysis of the definition of rural areas and the population growth rate of 1947 rural counties in the United States from 2000 to 2019,the paper identifies shrinking counties.By combining the cold and hot spot analysis,it identifies the typical areas of continuous shrinking,growth shrinking and shrinking recovery.By adopting the"quantitative and qualitative"analysis framework,it selects four comprehensive indicators from the perspective of economy,population and society,and identifies the main influencing factors affecting the change of rural population in the United States through the regression coefficients.It’s found that:1)The population migration has a greater impact on the change of total population.2)Aging,ethnic level and comprehensive economic level are the main factors affecting the natural and mechanical growth rate of the population in rural areas of the United States.3)By comparing the correlation coefficient differences of population change in each typical area,and by conducting case analysis,the paper classifies the three areas with continuous shrinking as"mining exhaustion type","traditional agriculture type"and"long-term poverty type",and the three areas with population fluctuation as"oil industry fluctuation type"and"administrative factor type".Among them,the comprehensive economic level,employment and income are the most important factors to determine whether the population in rural areas can recover.Finally,the paper discusses the implications of studying rural population shrinking in the United Stat
作者
肖超伟
张旻薇
刘合林
XIAO Chaowei;ZHANG Minwei;LIU Helin(National Academyof Development and Strategy,Renmin University of China,Bejing 100872,China;School of Architecture and Urban Planning,Huazhong University of Science and Technology,Wuhan 430074,Hubei,China;Hubei Engineering&Technology Research Center of Urbanization,Wuhan 430074,Hubei,China)
出处
《经济地理》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2022年第11期163-172,共10页
Economic Geography
基金
国家自然科学基金面上项目(52278063)。
关键词
乡村人口收缩
城市化
城乡融合发展
地区差异
中国式现代化
经济发展水平
乡村振兴
rural population shrinking
urbanization
integrated urban and rural development
regional differences
Chinese path to modernization
economic development level
rural revitalization
