摘要
鉴于雨洪遭遇概率分析对城市洪涝灾害防治具有重要意义,以最大日雨量及相应最大日平均流量为特征量,分别采用Gumbel、Clayton、Frank三种类型的Copula函数构造了景德镇市区暴雨与昌江干流洪水的联合分布函数,并用P-P图和拟合优度评价准则选取拟合效果最优的Copula函数,分析暴雨与洪水的遭遇概率,并从条件概率密度的角度选定了雨洪条件最可能组合方案。结果表明,Gumbel Copula函数构造的暴雨洪水联合分布效果最好;景德镇市区发生100、50、20、10年一遇暴雨时,遭遇相同频率昌江干流洪水的概率分别为29.63%、24.89%、20.16%、17.83%;景德镇市区暴雨重现期为100、50、20、10年一遇时最可能发生的昌江干流洪水流量值分别为7300、6053、4507、3298 m^(3)/s。
The analysis of rain and flood encounter probability is of great significance to the prevention and control of urban flood disasters.Choosing the maximum daily rainfall and the corresponding maximum daily average discharge as characteristic variables,three types of Copula functions of Gumbel,Clayton,and Frank were used to construct the joint distribution function of the rainstorm in Jingdezhen urban area and the flood of the Changjiang mainstream.The Copula function with the best fitting effect was selected by the P-P diagram and the goodness of fit evaluation criteria to analyze the combined probability of storm flood encounter.The most likely combination of rainstorm conditions was determined from aspect of conditional probability density.The results show that the combined distribution effect of storm floods obtained by the Gumbel Copula function is the best;When Jingdezhen urban area occurres rainstorm with 100,50,20,10-year return period,the corresponding flood encounter probability of Changjiang mainstream is 29.63%,24.89%,20.16%,17.83%,respectively,and the most likely flood discharge to be happened is 7300,6053,4507 and 3298 m^(3)/s.
作者
陈琼
李国芳
包瑾
CHEN Qiong;LI Guo-fang;BAO Jin(College of Hydrology and Water Resources,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China;Jiangsu Hydrologic and Water Resources Survey Bureau,Nanjing 210098,China)
出处
《水电能源科学》
北大核心
2022年第12期125-128,151,共5页
Water Resources and Power
基金
国家重点研发计划(2018YFC1508200)
江苏高校“青蓝工程”
中央高校基本科研业务重大支持专项(B200204029)。
关键词
雨洪遭遇
遭遇概率
COPULA函数
联合分布
条件最可能组合
rain and flood encounter
encounter probability
copula function
joint distribution
the most likely combination of conditions
