摘要
为明确移动互联下网约车对出租车的影响及未来城市出租汽车服务市场的结构变化,分析了网约车与出租车的市场准入与商业模式特征,针对网约车构建了车辆数量-乘客等待时间-服务水平-司机车收入-车辆数量互动关系分析模型。在出租车数量受审批约束难以增加的情况下,采用Nested-Logit模型预测了4种交通方式(网约车、出租车、地铁和公交)的分担率与市场规模。基于网约车司机收入与市场份额的正向反馈关系模拟分析了在出租车汽车市场均衡状态形成过程中,网约车与出租车数量的增减状况及4种交通方式分担率的变化趋势。结果表明:随着出租汽车市场走向均衡状态,网约车数量与道路上网约车的密度将会继续增加,使得网约车乘客下单后的等车时间缩短,网约车服务水平得到提升,但网约车的增加不会无限地降低乘客的等车时间,在宁波市当网约车的数量达到15 000 veh后,其服务水平趋于稳定,说明此时网约车发展到了均衡状态,同时出租车市场规模逐渐萎缩,行业收入将由日均346万元降至280万元。网约车将取代传统的出租车成为新的城市出租汽车模式,行业管理部门需谨慎权衡经济问题与社会问题,把网约车对出租车的市场侵蚀控制在合理范围内,同时对出租车公司进行改革,理顺公司与司机的利益关系。
To clarify the influence of online car-hailing on taxi in mobile Internet context and the structural change of urban taxi service market in the future, the characteristics of market access and business model of the online car-hailing and taxi are studied. A model for analyze the interactions of number of vehicles, passenger’s waiting time, service level, driver income and number of vehicles is built. Under the condition of the number of taxis could hardly increase due to the approval restriction, the share rates and market scales of 4 transport modes(online car-hailing, taxi, metro and bus) are is used to predicted by using Nested-Logit model. Based on the positive feedback between the driver’s income and the market share of online car-hailing, the changes of the numbers of online car-hailing and taxis and the share rates of the 4 modes in the process towards the equilibrium of taxi market are simulated. The result shows that(1) As the taxi market moving towards equilibrium, the number and density of online car-hailing will continue to increase, which will shorten the waiting time for online car-hailing passengers after placing order, and improve the service level of online car-hailing. But the increase in online car-hailing will not cut passengers’ waiting times indefinitely. In Ningbo, when number of online car-hailing vehicles reached 15 000 veh, the service quality tends to reach certain level, indicating that online car-hailing has reached an equilibrium state. At the same time, the taxi market scale is gradually being shrank, the industry revenue will drop from 3.46 million yuan per day to 2.8 million yuan per day.(2) Online car-hailing will replace the traditional taxi and become a new urban taxi model. Industry administration need to keep a balance between economic and social issues with measures carefully, control the market erosion of online car-hailing to taxi in a reasonable range. Meanwhile, straighten out the interests between the company and the driver by reform the taxi company.
作者
伊旭
程建南
杨忠振
YI Xu;CHENG Jian-nan;YANG Zhong-zhen(School of Maritime Economics and Management,Dalian Maritime University,Dalian Liaoning 116026,China;School of Maritime and Transportation,Ningbo University,Ningbo Zhejiang 315800,China)
出处
《公路交通科技》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2022年第10期171-179,共9页
Journal of Highway and Transportation Research and Development
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(72072097)。
