摘要
由于俄乌冲突及脱碳进程影响,2022年全球天然气市场呈现新的发展态势。文章基于全球天然气价格和供需形势的研判,剖析了国际油公司LNG(液化天然气)项目成本价格,开展了国际油公司低成本天然气一体化发展战略研究。结果表明,目前全球天然气市场处于溢价阶段,需求端长期看涨,供给端快速反应,天然气长期贸易合同量明显上升。在双碳和降本增效双轮驱动下,国际油公司重点LNG项目单位成本总体呈现下降趋势。未来10年内国际油公司将通过提高天然气和LNG产量占比,加大低碳投入和可再生能源支出,研发CCUS(碳捕集、利用与封存)技术致力于零碳排放,构建业务链一体化发展模式,持续做大天然气产业链。为此建议中国油公司继续突出天然气龙头产业地位、不断加大天然气/LNG业务的投资、构建强大的LNG项目储备、从传统的上下游一体化向业务链一体化转变、采用CCUS技术降低传统天然气业务碳排放。
Affected by Russia-Ukraine conflicts and slow decarbonization process,the global natural gas market presents a new development trend in 2022.Based on the judgment of global natural gas price and supply and demand situation,the cost prices of LNG projects are analyzed,and the integrated development strategies of low-cost natural gas of international oil companies(IOCs)are researched.The results show that the global natural gas market is in the premium stage.The demand side is long-term bullish,while the supply side responses rapidly.The volume of long-trade nature gas contracts has significantly increased.Driven by requirements of dual carbon and cost reduction and benefits increase,the unit cost of key LNG projects of IOCs generally shows a downtrend.In the next 10 years,IOCs will continue to expand the natural gas industry chain by increasing the proportion of natural gas and LNG production,increasing the low-carbon investment and renewable energy expenditure,developing CCUS(carbon capture,utilization and storage)technology for zero carbon emissions,and building an integrated development mode of natural gas business chain.Finally,it is suggested that Chinese oil companies should continue to highlight the leading position of natural gas,increase the investment in natural gas/LNG business,build a powerful LNG project reserve,transform from the traditional integrated upstream and downstream to the integration of business chain,and reduce carbon emissions of traditional natural gas business by applying CCUS technology.
作者
吴义平
易成高
刘亚茜
刘申奥艺
门科
孙杜芬
Wu Yiping;Yi Chenggao;Liu Yaqian;Liu-Shen Aoyi;Men Ke;Sun Dufen(PetroChina Research Institute of Petroleum Exploration&Development;Southwest Petroleum University)
出处
《中国石油勘探》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2022年第6期22-31,共10页
China Petroleum Exploration
基金
中国石油“十四五”关键核心技术攻关项目“氦气资源评价与低成本提氦及运储关键技术研究”(2021ZG13)
中国石油天然气股份有限公司科学研究与技术开发项目“海外油气勘探项目资产评估与规划决策技术研究”(2021DJ3106)。
