摘要
畜牧业是中国农业的重要组成部分,是支撑中国经济发展的支柱产业之一。畜产品大多为鲜活农产品,受产品易腐、运输消耗大、时间定价敏感、相关进口产品冲击及养殖效益不佳等因素影响,中国畜产品价格近年来频繁暴涨暴跌,给养殖户和产品生产商带来巨大的市场风险,也对人们的日常生活产生冲击,确保畜产品价格的合理波动、保证市场的稳定是实现畜牧业健康高质量发展的关键所在。运用H-P滤波法和时间序列分解法分析中国主要畜产品价格的波动趋势及周期季节性波动特征,并基于价格形成理论、价格波动理论、价格预测理论等分析畜产品价格波动的影响因素,在此基础上构建畜产品价格波动预测指标体系。基于此,从加强畜产品价格研究,构建完善的畜产品价格预测机制;强化数据采集体系建设,建立健全畜产品价格预测预警信息系统;完善信息预报发布机制,提升畜产品价格预测预警水平等方面提出了加强畜产品价格波动及预测预警研究的建议。
Animal husbandry is an important component of China's agriculture,as well as one of the pillar industries supporting China's economic development.Most livestock products are fresh agricultural products,whose prices have risen and fallen frequently affected by the factors of perishable products,high transportation consumption,sensitive time pricing,impact of related imported products and poor breeding benefits in China recently,which brings huge market risks to farmers and producers,and also impacts on people's daily life.It is urgent to realize the healthy and high-quality development of livestock husbandry through ensuring the reasonable fluctuation of livestock products price and maintaining the stability of the market.The fluctuation trend,periodic and seasonal characteristics of China's main livestock products price were analyzed by using H-P filter method and time series decomposition method,the influencing factors of livestock product price fluctuation were summarized based on price formation theory,price fluctuation theory and price prediction theory,and the index system for forecasting price fluctuation of livestock products was constructed.Based on these,suggestions on strengthening the research on livestock product price fluctuation and the forecast and early warning were put forward from strengthening the research on the livestock products price and building a perfect price forecast mechanism,strengthening the construction of data collection system and establishing the livestock products price forecast and early warning information system,improving the information forecast release mechanism and enhancing the level of livestock products price forecast and early warning.
作者
吴培
王琳
李哲敏
Wu Pei;Wang Lin;Li Zhemin(Agricultural Information Institute,CAAS,Beijing 100081;Graduate School,CAAS,Beijing 100081;Capital University of Economics and Business,Beijing 100070)
出处
《农业展望》
2022年第9期3-12,共10页
Agricultural Outlook
基金
中国农业科学院创新工程项目(CAAS-ASTIP-2020-AII-02)
农业农村部农业科研杰出人才经费。
关键词
畜产品
价格波动
周期季节性
H-P滤波法
时间序列分解法
指标体系
livestock products
price fluctuation
periodic and seasonal characteristics
H-P filter method
time series decomposition method
index system
