摘要
财政压力会影响到地方政府融资策略选择,并且因制度环境不同而存在差异。文章以2016年全面推开营改增后的增值税“五五分成”改革作为识别地方政府财力变化的外生冲击,研究发现增值税“五五分成”改革确实对各个地方财政压力带来了不同影响,面临更大财政压力的地区会多渠道地扩大其融资来源,并且更加依赖于土地出让收入、隐性债务以及专项收入等。这在市场化程度高的地区表现得更为明显,并且通过异质性分析发现,财政透明度较低地区以及第三产业较为薄弱的地区面对财政压力时,会更倾向于发行隐性债务。此外,受制于支出刚性的影响,面临更大财政压力的地区,除“三公”消费有着显著减少外,其支出规模和支出结构并没有明显的变化。文章的研究表明,地方政府在面临因税收相对减少而带来的财政压力时,更倾向于拓宽其融资渠道,在资源禀赋越高和制度环境相对更好的地区,这种融资能力可能更强、手段更为多元化。改善经济发展的环境有助于提高地方政府应对财政压力的能力,也可以促进财政的可持续性,但是需要警惕由此衍生的财政风险。
Fiscal pressure will affect the financing strategy choice of local governments and vary by the institutional environment. Numerous studies have explored the impact of fiscal pressure in terms of economic development,tax collection,government efficiency,and expenditure structure. A more immediate question regarding the rise in fiscal pressure is how local governments respond to fiscal pressure. In particular,existing studies have not focused as a whole on whether the overall financing strategies of local governments change under fiscal pressure.This paper empirically assesses the impact of the “five-to-five” sharing reform of VAT on local governments’ fiscal pressure and financing structure,using the reform as an exogenous shock to identify changes in local governments’ financial resources. It is important to note that we construct a fiscal revenue diversification index to measure the financing structure of local governments. Empirical results find that the “five-to-five”sharing reform of VAT does have different effects on local fiscal pressure,with regions facing greater fiscal pressure expanding their financing sources through multiple channels and relying more on land concessions,hidden debts,and special revenues. And the effects are more evident in regions with high marketization. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that regions with lower fiscal transparency and weaker tertiary sector are more inclined to issue implicit debt in the face of fiscal pressure. In addition,regions facing greater fiscal pressure due to expenditure rigidity do not show significant changes in their expenditure scale and structure,except for a significant reduction in public spending.Compared with previous studies,the contributions of this paper are that: First,it focuses on the impact of fiscal pressure on the financing structure of local governments,explores the changes in the overall financing structure of local governments when they face fiscal pressure through empirical analysis,and systematically reveals the relationship
作者
祁毓
付永婷
余锦亮
Qi Yu;Fu Yongting;Yu Jinliang(School of Public Finance and Taxation,Zhongnan University of Economics and Law,Wuhan 430073,China;School of Economics and Trade,Hunan University,Changsha 410006,China)
出处
《财经研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2022年第11期94-108,共15页
Journal of Finance and Economics
基金
国家自然科学基金面上项目(72173136)
国家自然科学基金青年项目(72003060)。
关键词
增值税
“五五分成”改革
财政压力
融资结构
VAT
“five-to-five”sharing reform
fiscal pressure
financing structure
