摘要
本文在界定金融稳定基础上,编制了2008-2020年我国31个省(自治区、直辖市)政府部门、金融部门、非金融企业部门和家庭部门的宏观账面资产负债表、宏观可流动资产负债表和宏观或有权益资产负债表,计算了反映四部门偿付能力、流动性水平、违约风险的关键指标,通过构建金融稳定指数,评估了四部门省级层面金融稳定水平,基于部门间违约集聚特征识别了系统重要性部门。研究发现:中国金融稳定水平经历了2008-2015年高涨回落和2015年以后稳定回升两个阶段,2020年新冠肺炎疫情冲击并未显著影响中国金融稳定水平,显示出我国防范化解重大风险和抗击疫情措施的成效。地区间金融稳定水平差距较大;四部门金融稳定水平对经济增长贡献由大到小依次为金融、家庭、企业和政府部门;政府、金融、企业部门间金融稳定形成互相传导闭环,风险最终由金融部门传导至家庭部门;金融部门是风险集聚特征明显的系统重要性部门,应重点维护金融部门稳定,以稳住经济大盘。
Financial stability is of great importance for the economic health and order.Ensuring financial stability is the top priority of economic development in China.The effective implementation of this important task requires precise and indepth research at the theoretical level.Based on the definition and connotation of financial stability,this paper creates the macro balance sheets of government sector,financial sector,non-financial enterprise sector and household sector in 31 provinces,municipalities and autonomous regions from 2008 to 2020 in China,providing the key indicators of the solvency,liquidity level and default risk.By constructing financial stability index,the paper evaluated the financial stability level of each sector and region.The systemically important economic sector is identified based on the characteristics of default agglomeration.The research results are as followed.Firstly,the financial stability of various regions has experienced two cycles:rising and falling from 2008 to 2015 and a stable recovery after 2015.It has not been significantly affected by the covid pandemic,demonstrating the effectiveness of the measures to guard against and defuse major risks as well as the achievement in combating the covid pandemic.Secondly,there are large differences in the level of financial stability among regions.Thirdly,the contribution to economic growth from large to small is the financial stability of financial,household,enterprise,and government sector.The financial sector is a systemically important sector.The financial stability among government,financial and enterprise sectors form a closed loop of conduction,which is ultimately transmitted from financial sector to household sector.This paper gives three suggestions.Firstly,to formulate financial stability policies,it is necessary to fully consider the cyclical and heterogeneous characteristics in the four sectors.Secondly,the financial sector needs to implement key management to prevent the overall instability caused by the evolution of risks in fin
作者
王晓婷
沈沛龙
杨静雯
Wang Xiaoting;Shen Peilong;Yang Jingwen(School of Finance,Shanxi University of Finance and Economics)
出处
《国际金融研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2022年第11期43-53,共11页
Studies of International Finance
基金
获国家社会科学基金一般项目“健全系统性金融风险预警、防控与应急处置机制研究”(18BJY231)资助。
关键词
金融稳定
宏观资产负债表
宏观经济部门
系统重要性部门
经济增长
Financial Stability
Macro Balance Sheet
Macroeconomic Sector
Systemically Important Sector
Economic Growth
