摘要
采用省际面板数据,研究经济总量及其波动、政府行为对产能利用率的影响,得到如下结论:经济总量对产能利用率具有正效应;经济波动的影响效应取决于波动变量的选取方式,工业增加值波动率越小,产能利用率越高;GDP波动率越大,产能利用率越高。中介变量检验和标准化法检验发现,贷款支持、财政支持、投资比重是经济总量和经济波动作用于产能利用率的中介变量;产能利用率不是经济增长的影像,三个中介变量解释了对产能利用率影响的76.4%。企业亏损退出与产能利用率正相关;其他政府行为变量与产能利用率均负相关;减少政府干预可以减缓产能过剩,但是受制于多重调控目标,调控政策很难一以贯之,这使得产能过剩久治难愈。
Based on provincial panel data,this paper studies the influence of economic aggregate and its fluctuation as well as government behaviors on capacity utilization rate,and the conclusions are as follows.Economic aggregate is positively correlated with capacity utilization;the influence of economic fluctuations depends on the selection of fluctuation variables.The smaller the industrial added value volatility is,the higher the capacity utilization rate is;the greater the GDP volatility,the greater the capacity utilization will be.Mediating variable test and standardization test find that loan support,fiscal expenditure and investment share are the intermediary variables of economic aggregate and its fluctuations on capacity utilization rate.Capacity utilization rate is not the mirror image of economic growth.The effect of the three intermediary variables accounts for 76.4%of the total impact on capacity utilization rate.The loss and exit of companies have positive effects on capacity utilization rate,and other government behavioral variables have negative effect on capacity utilization rate.Reducing government intervention can slow down overcapacity.However,subject to multiple regulatory targets,it is difficult for adjustment policies to be implemented continually,which makes overcapacity difficult to be well controlled.
作者
邹卫星
房林
ZOU Wei-xing;FANG Lin(School of Economics,Tianjin University of Finance and Economics,Tianjin 300222,China)
出处
《云南财经大学学报》
CSSCI
北大核心
2023年第1期34-49,共16页
Journal of Yunnan University of Finance and Economics
基金
国家社会科学基金一般项目“基于技术进步、有效投资和脱贫工程的经济增长潜力研究”(16BJL-031)。
关键词
产能利用率
经济增长
经济波动
中介变量
标准化法
Capacity Utilization Rate
Economic Growth
Economic Fluctuation
Mediating Variable
Standardization Method
