摘要
洪水预报作为非工程措施是防御并减少洪涝灾害的重要手段和关键环节。水雨情自动测报系统的不断完善为洪水预报中水文信息的获取奠定了基础性工作,降水作为洪水产生的关键因素之一,降水预报技术的发展与应用为洪水预报发展提供新的动力,面向洪水预报的水文模型从降雨-产流等方面解释洪水产生的过程,丰富了洪水预报的方法,陆气耦合模型的发展为洪水预报进一步提高精度和预见期指明了新的方向。随着以上技术的不断发展与完善,洪水预报精度不断提高,从水雨情自动测报系统研究进展、洪水预报中降水预报应用进展、洪水预报水文模型研究进展、陆气耦合模型研究进展四个方面系统阐述目前洪水预报精度的研究进展,并对洪水预报今后的发展方向和研究热点做出展望,水雨情自动测报系统急需引入新的理论技术和非接触式设备等,增加信息的密度和强度,洪水预报的发展以及人工智能在洪水预报研究和实际工作中的应用实践,已经为洪水预报技术的突破提供了有力支撑,陆气耦合技术由单向耦合向基于物理概念的双向耦合发展,单站观测及模拟气象数据驱动向结合遥感和四维同化方向发展,为今后的提高洪水预报精度研究提供参考。研究成果可为水文、水库调度科技工作者提供技术参考。
Flood forecasting is an important non-engineering means to prevent and reduce flood disasters.The continuous improvement of automatic measuring and forecasting system of water and rain regime has laid a foundation for the acquisition of hydrological information in flood forecasting.Precipitation is one of the key factors of flood generation,the development and application of precipitation forecasting technology provide new impetus for the development of flood forecasting.The hydrological model for flood forecasting explains the process of flood generation from the perspective of rainfall-runoff and so on,and enriches the methods of flood forecasting,the development of land-atmosphere coupling technology points out a new direction for further improving the accuracy and forecast period of flood forecasting.With the continuous development and improvement of the above technologies,the accuracy of flood forecasting is constantly improved.In this paper,the research progress of flood forecasting precision is systematically reviewed from four aspects:the research progress of automatic rainfall forecasting system,the application progress of precipitation forecasting in flood forecasting,the research progress of hydrological model of flood forecasting,and the research progress of land-atmosphere coupling model,the development direction and research hotspot of flood forecasting in the future are prospected.The automatic forecasting system of water and rain conditions needs urgently to introduce new theoretical technologies and non-contact equipment to increase the density and intensity of information.The development of flood forecasting and the application of artificial intelligence in flood forecasting research and practical work have already contributed to the development of flood forecasting technology.The breakthrough provides a strong support.The land-atmosphere coupling technology has developed from one-way coupling to two-way coupling based on physical concepts,and single-station observation and simulated meteorologi
作者
李涛
夏润亮
李冰
俞彦
徐志恒
杨无双
LI Tao;XIA Run-liang;LI Bing;YU Yan;XU Zhi-heng;YANG Wu-shuang(Yellow River Institute of Hydraulic Research,YRCC,Zhengzhou 450003,Henan Province,China;Henan Smart Water Conservancy Engineering Technology Center,Zhengzhou 450003,Henan Province,China;North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power,Zhengzhou 450018,Henan Province,China)
出处
《中国农村水利水电》
北大核心
2022年第12期107-114,共8页
China Rural Water and Hydropower
基金
河南省杰青项目(202300410539)
河南省优青项目(212300410059)
河南省重大科技专项项目(201400211000)
黄河水利科学研究院中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项资金(HKY-JBYW-2020-21,HKY-JBYW-2020-07,HKY-JBYW-2022-11)。
关键词
洪水预报
水雨情测报
水文模型
降水预报
陆气耦合
flood forecast
water and rain forecast
hydrological model
precipitation forecast
land-atmosphere coupled
