摘要
以2019年《国务院办公厅关于印发降低社会保险费率综合方案的通知》的政策实施为基准建立精算模型,根据第七次人口普查数据和国家最新有关生育政策对2021—2050年的人口变动情况进行预测,分别在回溯假设、乐观假设、理想假设、生育水平提高假设、风险假设以及降费综合改革拓展假设等不同假设条件下,以可行降费空间的视角,考察降费综合改革对职工养老保险基金收支平衡的影响。研究结果表明:降费综合改革确实可以有效减缓基金收支压力,但替代率越高,目标时点越长,其作用越弱。降低替代率水平是职工基本养老保险制度基金收支平衡以及可行降费空间形成的核心。将延迟退休、部分国有资本划转与制度化财政补助纳入降费综合改革,可以有效充实基本养老保险基金,保障养老保险基金长期收支平衡,为进一步降费改革提供空间。由此,进一步深化职工养老保险降费综合改革,尽快确定延迟退休方案并拓宽费基及基金收入来源,可以实现基金收支平衡与企业减负的双重目标。
Based on the implementation of the Comprehensive Plan for Reducing Social Insurance Rates in 2019,this article establishes an actuarial model to predict the population changes from 2021to 2050 in accordance with the data of the seventh population census and the latest family planning policy of the state.From the perspective of room for feasible fee reduction,it explores the impact of the comprehensive fee reduction reform on the fund balance of the employee’s basic endowment insurancepayments under different assumptive conditions,such as the tracebackassumptions,the optimistic assumptions,the assumptions of fertility level improvement,the risk assumptions,and the expansion assumptions of comprehensive fee reduction reforms respectively.The findings show that the comprehensive reform of fee reduction can effectively alleviate the pressure of fund revenue and expenditure,but the higher the replacement rate and the longer the target time point,the weaker its effect will be.Reducing the replacement rate is the core of the fund balance of the employee’basic endowment insurance system and the formation of the room for feasible fee reductions.The inclusion of delayed retirement,partial transfers of state-owned capital and institutionalized financial subsidies into the comprehensive reform of fee reductions can effectively enrich the basic pension insurance fund,ensure the long-term balance of the pension insurance fund,and provide room for further fee reduction reforms.Then,further deepening the comprehensive reform of employee pension insurance premium reduction and determining a delayed retirement plan as soon as possible with the expansion of the premium base and fund income source can achieve the dual goals of balancing fund revenue and expenditure and alleviating corporate burdens.
作者
金刚
宋经翔
JIN Gang;SONG Jing-xiang(Liaoning University,Shenyang 110136,China)
出处
《江西财经大学学报》
CSSCI
北大核心
2022年第5期60-76,共17页
Journal of Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics
基金
国家自然科学基金重点项目“新三支柱‘橄榄型’可持续发展养老制度优化与设计”(71731007)
国家社会科学基金项目“降低养老保险企业政策缴费率的可行空间与实施路径研究”(18BGL195)
辽宁省教育厅科学研究项目“综合降费改革背景下城镇职工基本养老保险财务可持续研究”(LJC202031)
辽宁省“兴辽英才计划”(XLYC2004013)。
关键词
降费综合改革
基金平衡
降费空间
企业职工养老保险
comprehensive reform to fees reduction
fund balance
room for fee reduction
employee’s basic endowment insurance
