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基于随机森林模型的我国老年人抑郁症状影响因素分析 被引量:12

Analysis of Influencing Factors of Depressive Symptoms of the Elderly in China Based on Random Forest Model
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摘要 目的:探究我国老年群体的抑郁症状及其影响因素,为促进老年人心理健康提供参考。方法:利用中国家庭追踪调查2018年的数据,构建logit模型分析各影响因素对老年人抑郁症状的影响,通过随机森林模型度量各影响因素的重要性。结果:25.00%的老年人存在抑郁症状。女性、无配偶、低学历、农村地区的老年人出现抑郁症状的可能性分别是男性、有配偶、高学历、城镇地区老年人的1.475、1.916、1.379、1.374倍;子女劳动支持与老年人抑郁症状呈负相关,精神支持则是老年人抑郁症状的保护因素;生理健康与医疗服务对老年人的抑郁症状有重要影响。在抑郁症状的影响因素中,排在前3位的是老年人子女个数、所在经济地区和自评健康。结论:老年人抑郁症状存在地区及人群差异,应重点对经济不发达地区、农村、无配偶、学历低、女性老年人给予必要关心和支持;子女给予老年人更多精神支持尤为重要;提升医疗保障水平,促进老年人生理健康对改善其抑郁症状有显著作用。 Objective:To explore the depressive symptoms and their influencing factors of elderly population in China,so as to provide a reference for the promotion of mental health of the elderly.Methods:Using the data of the China family panel studies in 2018,the logit model was constructed to analyze the impact of various influencing factors on depressive symptoms of the elderly,and the importance of each influencing factor was measured by the random forest model.Results:25.00% of the elderly had depressive symptoms.The possibility of depressive symptoms among females,the elderly without spouse,low-educated elderly,and rural elderly was 1.475,1.916,1.379,and 1.374 times as high as that of males,the elderly with spouse,high-educated elderly,and urban elderly.Children’s labor support was negatively correlated with the depressive symptoms of the elderly and mental support was a protective factor.Physiological health and medical services significantly influenced the depressive symptoms of the elderly.Among the influencing factors of depressive symptoms,the top three were the number of children of the elderly,economic region,and self-assessed health status.Conclusion:There are regional and population differences in depressive symptoms in the elderly.The necessary care and support should be given to the elderly in economically underdeveloped and rural areas,the elderly without spouses and with low education levels,and female elderly.Children need to give more mental support to the elderly.Improving the level of medical security and promoting the physical health of the elderly have a significant effect on improving their depressive symptoms.
作者 许金鹏 康正 王海鑫 张博锴 张洪宇 张婷 石淇 刘剑 田国梅 XU Jinpeng(Department of Social Medicine,School of Health Management,Harbin Medical University,Harbin,Heilongjiang,150081,China)
出处 《医学与社会》 北大核心 2022年第12期85-92,共8页 Medicine and Society
基金 国家自然科学基金资助项目,编号为72074064、71573068 首都医科大学国家医疗保障研究院开放性课题面上项目,编号为YB2019B05 中国博士后基金面上项目,编号为2019M650068 中国博士后基金特别资助项目,编号为2018T110319 国家社会科学基金资助重点项目,编号为19AZD013。
关键词 心理健康 抑郁症状 老年人 影响因素 Mental Health Depressive Symptom Older Adult Influencing Factor
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