摘要
在新一轮科技革命和产业变革背景下,金融科技发展为我国产业结构优化与产业升级带来新的机遇和挑战。本文使用我国2011—2019年省际面板数据,建立工具变量模型和中介效应模型,研究金融科技发展对产业结构的影响效应及作用渠道。实证检验发现,金融科技发展能够促进我国产业结构优化与产业升级,并且使用多个工具变量的稳健性检验仍支持这一结论。机制分析发现,金融科技发展通过发挥需求侧的恩格尔效应和供给侧的鲍莫尔效应,显著促进了产业结构高级化和产业结构合理化双进程。进一步的异质性检验表明,从空间角度,金融科技发展对产业结构优化的促进效应自东向西呈现U型特征;从时间角度,2015年之后金融科技发展对产业结构高级化的作用明显增强,并且能够显著降低产业结构不合理程度。本文建议积极发挥金融科技的普惠金融功能,通过增加创业机会、缓解融资约束、鼓励科技创新、缩小城乡差距,促进我国产业结构优化与产业升级。
Under the background of scientific and technological revolution and industrial reform,the development of financial technology has brought new opportunities and challenges to China’s industrial structure optimization and industrial upgrading.Using the provincial panel data in China from 2011 to 2019,it investigates the impacts and channels of the financial technology on industrial structure based on the instrumental variable model and intermediary effect model.The empirical results show that financial technology promotes the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure,and the robustness tests using multiple instrumental variables still support this conclusion.Mechanism analysis shows that the development of financial technology has significantly promoted the dual process of the advancement and rationalization of industrial structure by giving play to the Engel effect on the demand side and the Baumol effect on the supply side.Further heterogeneity tests find that from a regional perspective,the promotion effects present a U-shape feature from the east to the west of China;from a temporal perspective,the effects on the advancement have increased significantly after 2015 and can significantly reduce the irrationality of industrial structure.As a policy implication,strengthening the inclusive function of financial technology will promote the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure by increasing entrepreneurial opportunities,reducing financing constraints,encouraging scientific and technological innovation and narrowing the gap between urban and rural areas.
作者
李海奇
张晶
Li Haiqi;Zhang Jing
出处
《统计研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2022年第10期102-118,共17页
Statistical Research
基金
国家自然科学基金面上项目“高维时变分位数预测模型:理论与应用”(72171076)
湖南省自然科学基金杰出青年科学基金项目“时变参数高维矩条件模型及其应用”(2021JJ10026)。
关键词
金融科技
恩格尔效应
鲍莫尔效应
产业结构高级化
产业结构合理化
Financial Technology
Engel Effect
Baumol Effect
Industrial Structure Advancement
Industrial Structure Rationalization
