基于DID模型的宝兰高速铁路对甘肃省沿线县域经济的影响研究被引量：4

Impact of Baoji-Lanzhou High Speed Railway on County Economy along the Line in Gansu Province Based on DID Model

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摘要宝兰高速铁路是西北地区重要的交通基础设施,对沿线县域经济有着重要的影响。首先通过构建最短时间距离、加权平均旅行时间和经济潜力模型,分析宝兰高速铁路对于甘肃省沿线县域可达性的影响。然后以2013—2019年面板数据为基础,构造双重差分模型,探究宝兰高速铁路对于甘肃省沿线县域经济发展和产业结构转型的影响。研究显示:宝兰高速铁路开通极大提高了甘肃省沿线县区级城市的可达性,加权平均旅行时间减少69.68%,经济潜力提升2.96倍;沿线县域经济增长速率增加了10%,并且宝兰高速铁路的开通对于县级城市的影响大于区级城市,同时宝兰高速铁路开通并未显著优化沿线县域产业结构,但对第二产业的影响大于第三产业,对县级城市的影响大于区级城市。 The Baoji-Lanzhou High Speed Railway is a vital transportation infrastructure in northwest China, which has an important impact on the county economy along the line. Firstly, by designing the minimum-time-distance model, weighted mean travel time model, and economic potential model, this paper analyzed the influence of the Baoji-Lanzhou High Speed Railway on the accessibility of counties along the line in Gansu Province. Then, on the basis of the panel data from 2013 to 2019, the difference-in-difference model was constructed to explore the influence of the Baoji-Lanzhou High Speed Railway on the economic development and industrial structure transformation of the counties. The results show that the opening of the Baoji-Lanzhou High Speed Railway greatly improves the accessibility of county-level cities along the line in Gansu Province, with the weighted average travel time reduced by 69.68% and the economic potential increased by 2.96 times. The economic growth rate of counties along the route increased by 10%, and the impact of the opening of the Baoji-Lanzhou High Speed Railway on county-level cities was greater than that of district-level cities. Although the opening of the Baoji-Lanzhou High Speed Railway did not significantly optimize the industrial structure of counties along the route, the impact on the secondary industry was greater than that of the tertiary industry, and the impact on county-level cities was greater than that on district-level cities.

作者姚永鹏陈文杰莫琪江 YAO Yongpeng;CHEN Wenjie;MO Qijiang(College of Finance and Economics,Gansu Agricultural University,Lanzhou 730070,Gansu,China)

机构地区甘肃农业大学财经学院

出处《铁道运输与经济》北大核心 2022年第10期70-76,共7页 Railway Transport and Economy

基金甘肃省哲学社会科学规划项目(20YB062) 甘肃省科技厅软科学项目(GSJC-RK-2020-15)。

关键词宝兰高速铁路县域经济双重差分模型经济发展产业升级可达性 Baoji-Lanzhou High Speed Railway County Economy Difference-in-Difference Model Economic Development Industrial Upgrading Accessibility

分类号 F530 [经济管理—产业经济]