摘要
全面剖析风电技术发展特性,结合技术、经济和政策的激励和限制,建立基于系统动力学的风电装机容量及发电量预测模型。综合经验学习曲线与规模效应,建立技术成熟度评价体系,量化台均装机容量、能效利用率和上网电价之间的关系,结合土地资源限制及电力系统的消纳能力,确定限制风电发展的关键因素。通过对英国历史数据的仿真分析,验证了模型的高置信度和合理性,定量地模拟不同能源激励政策对风电技术扩散的影响,并预测未来风电技术发展趋势,为中国能源政策提出启发性建议。
Based on the comprehensive analysis of the characteristics of wind power technology development,combined with technical,economic and policy incentives and constraints,a wind power installed capacity and power generation prediction model based on system dynamics is established.Based on the experience learning curve and scale effect,establish a technology maturity evaluation system,quantify the relationship between the average installed capacity,energy efficiency utilization rate and grid price,and determine the key factors limiting the development of wind power in combination with land resource constraints and the absorptive capacity of the power system.Through the simulation analysis of the historical data of the United Kingdom,the high confidence and rationality of the model are verified,the impact of different energy incentive policies on the diffusion of wind power technology is quantitatively simulated,and the development trend of wind power technology in the future is predicted to put forward enlightening suggestions for China’s energy policy.
作者
张道全
潘巧波
张乐平
ZHANG Daoquan;PAN Qiaobo;ZHANG Leping(Huadian Electric Power Research Institute Co.,Ltd.,Hangzhou 310030,China)
出处
《黑龙江电力》
CAS
2022年第5期395-401,共7页
Heilongjiang Electric Power
