摘要
本文基于经济周期视角重新审视省级财政支出乘数的非对称性和空间分布特征,同时分析了众多结构性因素对省级财政乘数的时变非线性影响。研究结果表明,第一,我国各省份的财政支出乘数均在经济收缩时期更高,说明凯恩斯理论中“经济不景气时期财政支出有效性更高”的观点在我国中观层面普遍成立;第二,我国不同区域间和同一区域内的省级财政乘数均呈现出较大异质性,并且在经济紧缩时期更为明显;第三,市场化程度的提高、贸易开放度的提高和第二产业增加值占GDP比重的提高对省级财政乘数有重要促进作用,而金融发展的完善、人口老龄化的加剧、地方政府债务的累积和居民收入不平等程度的拉大,反而极大地削弱省级财政乘数。本文通过刻画财政乘数对众多结构性因素的反应函数,不仅有利于从全局视角把握财政乘数的变化规律,还为促使财政政策提质增效赋予了极强的政策启示意义。
Based on the perspective of business cycle,this paper reexamines the asymmetry and spatial distribution characteristics of provincial fiscal multipliers,and analyzes the time-varying nonlinear effects of many structural factors on provincial fiscal multipliers.The results show that:First,the fiscal multipliers of all provinces in China is higher in the pe-riod of economic contraction,which indicates that the view of"higher effectiveness of fis-cal expenditure in the period of recession"in Keynes theory is also valid in the meso level of China;Second,the provincial fiscal multipliers among different regions and within the same region in China show great heterogeneity,and it is more obvious in the period of economic contraction;Third,the improvement of the degree of marketization,the improvement of the degree of trade openness and the increase of the added value of the secondary industry in the proportion of GDP play an important role in promoting the provincial fiscal multipliers.However,the improvement of financial development,the deepening of the aging population,the accumulation of local government debt ratio and the widening of the inequality of residents'income have greatly weakened the provincial fiscal multipliers.By depicting the response function of the fiscal multipliers to many structural factors,this paper not only helps to grasp the change rule of the fiscal multiplier from the overall perspective,but also gives strong policy implications for promoting the quality and efficiency of fiscal policy.
作者
刘金全
陈润东
Liu Jinquan;Chen Rundong(School of Economics and Statistics,Guangzhou University,Guangzhou 510006,China)
出处
《南开经济研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2022年第9期42-59,共18页
Nankai Economic Studies
基金
国家社会科学基金重大项目“健全目标优化、分工合理、高效协同的宏观经济治理体系的理论与实践研究”(21ZDA042)、国家自然科学基金项目“经济周期形态变异、经济周期成分分解与经济政策周期相依性的动态机制研究”(72073040)资助。
关键词
经济周期
财政政策
省级财政乘数
异质性成因
时变非线性
Business Cycle
Fiscal Policy
Provincial Fiscal Multipliers
Heterogeneity Reasons
Time-Varying Nonlinearity
