摘要
化石能源向可再生能源的转型是中国实现碳中和目标的重要途径,而发展风电和光伏发电则是能源转型的关键。补贴“退坡”大背景下,如何优化相关激励政策以保持风电和光伏发电的可持续发展是学术界和政策制定者最关心的问题之一。本文在传统平准化度电成本(LCOE)模型的基础上引入政府补贴、碳减排收益、融资成本等技术经济和政策变量开发出综合平准化度电成本(CLCOE)模型,从而对碳市场、绿色金融等可再生能源发电激励政策的效果进行基于政策情景的分析评估。应用综合平准化度电成本模型,对四类风力资源区和三类太阳能资源区14个项目的经济性和碳排放进行评估,研究了补贴“退坡”、碳市场、绿色金融等政策工具对风电和光伏发电全生命周期发电成本的影响,基于此评价相关政策的效果。研究表明:短期来看补贴“退坡”将对可再生能源发电经济有效性产生显著影响,而碳市场和绿色金融政策则可降低可再生能源发电成本并改善其经济效益,促进补贴“退坡”背景下可再生能源的持续发展;从长期来看,推动可再生能源发电可持续发展的政策应聚焦于推动技术进步并进一步降低可再生能源发电成本。
The transformation of fossil energy to renewable energy is an important path for China to achieve the goal of carbon neutrality,and the development of wind power and photovoltaic power generation is an important direction of energy transformation.Under the background of subsidy decline,how to optimize relevant incentive policies to maintain the sustainable development of wind and photovoltaic power generation is one of the most concerned issues for academia and policy makers.Based on the traditional levelized cost of electricity(LCOE)model,this paper introduces technical,economic and policy variables such as government subsidies,carbon price benefits,and financing costs to develop a comprehensive levelized cost of electricity(CLCOE)model,which can evaluate the incentive effect of renewable energy incentive policies such as carbon market and green finance.By applying CLCOE model,this paper evaluates the economy and carbon emissions of 14 projects in four types of wind resource areas and three types of solar resource areas,and studies the impact of policy tools such as subsidy decline,carbon market and green finance on the life cycle cost of wind and photovoltaic power generation,so as to evaluate the effect of relevant policies.The results show that,in the short term,the decline of subsidies has significantly declined the economic effectiveness of renewable energy power generation.The carbon market and green financial policies have certain effects on reducing the cost of renewable energy power generation and promoting the development of renewable energy.However,in the long run,the policy path to promote the sustainable development of renewable energy power generation should highlight the promotion of technological progress and the further reduction of the cost of renewable energy generation.
作者
聂洪光
刘尚奇
莫建雷
NIE Hong-guang;LIU Shang-qi;MO Jian-lei
出处
《中国地质大学学报（社会科学版）》
CSSCI
北大核心
2022年第6期66-81,共16页
Journal of China University of Geosciences(Social Sciences Edition)
基金
国家重点研发计划项目“推动产业与区域协同有序适应气候变化的理论和综合模式”(2020YFA0608602)
吉林省创新发展战略研究项目“面向碳中和的吉林省创新发展对策研究”(20220601018FG)
长春市社科联定向课题“长春市经济增长与碳排放脱钩的机制研究”(ccss2022003)。
关键词
风力发电
光伏发电
补贴“退坡”
碳市场
绿色金融
wind power generation
photovoltaic power generation
subsidy decline
carbon market
green finance
