摘要
四川盆地是目前中国页岩气勘探开发的重点地区,也是最成功的地区。四川盆地页岩气的资源勘探开发前景,将在很大程度上反映和影响中国未来页岩气的发展前景。单口页岩气井最终采收率(EUR)是页岩气的规模和效益开发的重要评价指标之一,受地质、工程等多种因素的影响,难以准确预测。为了准确预测最终采收率,以涪陵区块56口页岩气井为样本,选取了影响最终采收率的14个地质和工程因素。采用皮尔逊相关系数和最大互信息系数综合评价法,筛选出8个关键控制因素。基于关键控制因素,采用多元回归方法建立了该区块页岩气井最终采收率预测模型,并且通过对测试样本的分析,验证了预测模型的有效性,最后预测出四川盆地未来页岩气的产量。
At present,Sichuan Basin is the key area for shale gas exploration and development in China,and also the most successful area.The exploration and development prospects of shale gas resources in Sichuan Basin will reflect and affect the future development prospects of shale gas in China to a large extent.The final recovery rate(EUR)of a single shale gas well is one of the important evaluation indicators for the scale and benefit development of shale gas.It is difficult to predict accurately due to the influence of geological,engineering and other factors.In order to accurately predict the final recovery factor,56 shale gas wells in Fuling Block are taken as samples,and 14 geological and engineering factors affecting the final recovery factor are selected.Using Pearson correlation coefficient and maximum mutual information coefficient comprehensive evaluation method,8 key control factors were screened out.Based on the key control factors,a prediction model for the final recovery of shale gas wells in the block is established by using the multiple regression method.The effectiveness of the prediction model is verified by the analysis of test samples,and the future shale gas production in Sichuan Basin is predicted.
作者
周文彬
张志全
许诗婧
吴亚星
张彬
杨树东
Zhou Wenbin;Zhang Zhiquan;Xu Shijing;Wu Yaxing;Zhang Bin;Yang Shudong(School of Petroleum Engineering,Yangtze University,Wuhan 430100,China)
出处
《能源与环保》
2022年第10期125-132,共8页
CHINA ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION
关键词
四川盆地
勘探开发
多元回归
产量预测
Sichuan Basin
exploration and development
multiple regression
yield prediction
