摘要
针对粤港澳大湾区风暴潮灾害的严重性及其重要的战略地位,采用ADCIRC水动力模型构建风暴潮精细化预报模型,选取3场典型台风风暴潮进行模拟预报,并用相关站点实测潮位数据验证了模型精度满足大湾区风暴潮预报要求。同时选取了1983~2018年间16场影响较大台风风暴潮进行模拟,发现模型预报精度影响因素主要有台风强度、台风路径、模型网格精度、近岸地形、海浪,进而提出了提高模型预报精度的措施,即增大模型的计算区域,及时调整因为时间推移而变化的边界条件;对西四口门及其附近区域网格进一步加密;进一步建立天文潮-风暴潮-海浪耦合模型。
In view of the severity of storm surge disasters and its important strategic position in the Greater Bay Area, a refined storm surge forecast model was constructed by using the ADCIRC hydrodynamic model. Three typical typhoon storm surges were selected for simulation forecasting, and the measured tide level data from the relevant stations was used to verify the simulation results. It shows that the model accuracy meets the requirements of storm surge forecasting in the Greater Bay Area. At the same time, 16 major typhoon storm surges from 1983 to 2018 were selected for simulation to explore the influencing factors of model forecast accuracy. It is found that the main influencing factors were typhoon intensity, typhoon track, model grid accuracy, nearshore topography and ocean waves. The measures were put forward to improve the forecasting accuracy of the model, which include increase of the calculation area of the model, timely adjusting the boundary conditions that change with the passage of time, further refining the grid of the West four gate and its surrounding areas as well as further establishing the astronomical tide-storm surge-wave coupling model.
作者
隆敏
周舜轩
韦露斯
刘斌
张行南
LONG Min;ZHOU Shun-xuan;WEI Lu-si;LIU Bin;ZHANG Xing-nan(College of Hydrology and Water Resources,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China;Pearl River Hydrology and Water Resources Survey Center,Guangzhou 510610,China)
出处
《水电能源科学》
北大核心
2022年第10期91-94,共4页
Water Resources and Power
