摘要
基于2010—2020年湖南省柑橘主产区代表品种洞口蜜桔,以及2015—2020年黔阳冰糖橙、道县脐橙、石门柑橘的品质数据和相应的气象数据,采用相关普查法、逐步回归法等筛选出影响湖南柑橘品质的关键气象因子,并建立了湖南柑橘气候品质评价指标。以洞口蜜桔为例,采用德尔菲法、主成分回归法和加权指数求和法等建立了洞口蜜桔气候品质评价模型,基于该模型对洞口蜜桔近11年的气候品质进行了评价。结果表明:在湖南省的9项柑橘品质指标中,受气象因子影响较大的主要有可溶性固形物和VC含量2项指标;影响湖南省柑橘气候品质的关键气象因子主要有果实迅速膨大期—采摘期累计日照时数、果实膨大期降水量、采摘期阴雨日数、主要生长季(4—10月)平均气温、着色期—采摘期平均气温日较差、果实膨大期日最高气温≥35℃的最长持续天数等6项指标;2010—2020年洞口蜜桔气候评价指数介于2.25~3.00,除2016、2020年的气候品质等级为良及以下外,其余年份均为优或特优级别,模型检验结果与实际品质等级的吻合率较高,其中与2项品质指标等级均一致的年份有6 a;与1项品质指标等级一致的年份均为8 a,吻合率为72.7%。
Based on the quality data and corresponding meteorological data of representative varieties of the main Citrus producing areas in Hunan Province, including Dongkou orange from 2010 to 2020 and Qianyang Bingtang orange, Daoxian navel orange and Shimen Citrus from 2015 to 2020, the relevant census method and stepwise regression method were used to screen the key meteorological factors affecting the climate quality of Citrus and establish the evaluation indexes of Citrus climate quality in Hunan. Dongkou orange was taken as an example, and Delphi method, principal component regression method and weighted index summation method were used to establish the climate quality evaluation model of Dongkou orange. Based on the model, the climate quality of Dongkou tangerine in the past 11 years was evaluated. The results showed that among the 9 quality indicators of Citrus in Hunan Province, soluble solid and VC content were the two indexes that were greatly affected by meteorological factors. There were six key meteorological factors affecting the climate quality of Citrus in Hunan, which were the total sunshine time of fruit rapid expansion period-picking period, precipitation during fruit expansion period, number of rainy days during picking period, average temperature in main growing season( from April to October), average daily temperature difference between coloring period and picking period and the longest duration days for daily maximum temperature≥35 ℃ during fruit expansion period. From 2010 to 2020, the climate evaluation index of Dongkou orange was between 2.25 and 3.00. Except for the 2016 and 2020 climate quality, whose grades were good or below, the other years were all excellent or special grades. The model test result had a high coincidence rate with the actual quality grade. Among them, 6 years were consistent with two quality index levels, and 8 years were consistent with one quality index level, with the coincidence rate of 72.7%.
作者
邓玲
江涤非
黎跃勇
董子舟
谭诗琪
DENG Ling;JIANG Di-fei;LI Yue-yong;DONG Zi-zhou;TAN Shi-qi(Hunan Meteorological Service Center,Changsha 410118,China;Hunan Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Prevention and Reduction,Changsha 410118,China)
出处
《江西农业学报》
CAS
2022年第8期184-189,共6页
Acta Agriculturae Jiangxi
基金
湖南省地方标准制修订计划项目(湘市监标函[2021]33号)
湖南省气象局面上项目(QXKJ22B030)。
关键词
湖南柑橘
气候品质
评价指标
洞口蜜桔
评价模型
Citrus in Hunan
Climate quality
Evaluation index
Dongkou orange
Evaluation model
