摘要
始于20世纪70年代,在可能世界的框架内讨论反事实及其相关问题依然是学术研究的主流,但对于可能世界语义和逻辑的批评从未停止。在还原主义的框架中讨论反事实的语义问题,说明使用可能世界语义分析会得出与直觉不符的结论,从而质疑可能世界语义本身的合法性是可行的径路之一。具体而言,可能世界语义至少面临五个反例,谢弗引入因果独立的概念力图消解它们,虽然谢弗径路有悖于还原主义的热望且依然有其不可解释的反例,但其合理性却被社会科学的因果推断实践所证成。
Since the 1970 s,the discussion of counterfactuals and related issues within the framework of possible worlds has remained the mainstream of academic research,but the criticism of the semantics and logic of possible worlds has never stopped.Discussing the semantics of counterfactuals in a reductionist framework shows that using possible-worlds semantics analysis leads to conclusions that are inconsistent with intuitions,thus questioning the legitimacy of possible-worlds semantics itself is one of the feasible trails.Specifically,Possible world semantics face at least five counter-examples,and Schaffer tries to dispel them by introducing the concept of causal independence.Although Schaffer’s approach runs counter to the aspirations of reductionism and still has its unexplainable counterexamples,its rationality is justified by the practice of causal inference in the social sciences.
作者
吴小安
WU Xiao-an(School of Marxism,Northwestern Polytechnical University,Xi'an 710072,China)
出处
《自然辩证法研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2022年第9期19-25,共7页
Studies in Dialectics of Nature
基金
国家社科基金后期资助项目“实际因果的结构方程径路研究”(21FZXB040)
教育部人文社会科学项目“实际因果前沿问题研究”(21XJC720002)
中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目“因果模型前沿问题研究”(G2021KY05109)。
关键词
加权系统
休谟式随附
还原论
因果模型
weighted system
humean supervenience
reductionism
causal models