摘要
IPCC报告第三工作组中“历史排放趋势和驱动因素”章节是历次评估报告的核心内容之一。2022年4月发布的第六次评估报告(AR6),在简要回顾1850—2019年历史累计排放趋势后,主要分析了1990—2019年间温室气体排放趋势与驱动因素。相比于第五次评估报告(AR5),在历史排放趋势方面,AR6在时间尺度上重点分析2010—2019年的近期变化,在研究内容上更加突出1.5℃温控目标的重要性,强化了对土地利用变化相关温室气体排放的关注,强调生产与消费视角下碳排放趋势及其区域演变趋势,探究了新冠肺炎疫情对全球碳排放的短期影响;在驱动因素方面,除了考虑全球和区域层面,还增加了基于能源、工业、建筑、交通、农林及其他土地利用(AFOLU)等部门视角的经济驱动因素分解及地区间差异分析,系统体现全球、区域和部门三层次下驱动因素的异同,指出区域层面存在能源转型成效,肯定了现有气候政策对气候减缓的积极影响以及突出技术变革与创新对气候减缓的益处,明确了化石能源基础设施碳锁定效应的不利影响等。最后,结合本章节关键结论,评估了相关结论对中国低碳发展的可能影响和启示。
“Emission Trends and Drivers”chapter,an important basis for international climate negotiations,is one of the core contents of each assessment report.The trends and driving factors of greenhouse gas emissions from 1990 to 2019 are discussed in this chapter in the Sixth Assessment Report(AR6)released in April 2022.Compared with the content in the Fifth Assessment Report(AR5),in terms of historical emission trends,AR6 focuses on the changes from 2010 to 2019,highlights the importance of the 1.5℃temperature control target,pays more attention to carbon dioxide(CO)emissions and non-carbon dioxide greenhouse gas emissions related to land use change,and further emphasizes the carbon emission trend and its regional evolution trend from the perspective of production and consumption.Besides,the short-term impact of COVID-19 on global carbon emissions is explored.In terms of driving factors,besides analyzing the global and regional economic driving factors,the economic driving factors and differences in energy,industry,construction,transportation,agriculture,forestry and other land use(AFOLU)sectors are also studied,which systematically reflects the similarities and differences of driving factors at the global,regional and departmental levels.The results affirm the positive impact of existing climate policies on climate mitigation,highlight the benefits of technological change and innovation on climate mitigation,and identify the adverse impact of carbon locking of fossil energy infrastructure.Finally,based on the full analysis of the key conclusions in AR6,some suggestions on China’s low-carbon development are given.
作者
谭显春
戴瀚程
顾佰和
黄晨
朱开伟
马啸天
闫洪硕
刘心远
朱衍磊
TAN Xian-Chun;DAI Han-Cheng;GU Bai-He;HUANG Chen;ZHU Kai-Wei;MA Xiao-Tian;YAN Hong-Shuo;LIU Xin-Yuan;ZHU Yan-Lei(Institutes of Science and Development,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100190,China;College of Environmental Sciences and Engineering,Peking University,Beijing 100871,China;School of Public Policy and Management,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China)
出处
《气候变化研究进展》
CSCD
北大核心
2022年第5期538-545,共8页
Climate Change Research
基金
IPCC第六次评估报告中国作者专项(HT2021101010YE029001)
国家自然科学基金重点项目(72140007)。
