摘要
以相关系数作为度量指标,提出了对水文时间序列相依变异进行量化研究的一种分级方法,并使用滑动平均模型描述其相依成分。通过公式推导出相关系数与滑动平均系数间的关系,再依据统计学原理选定4个合理分级阈值,从弱到强将相依变异程度分成5个等级。结合统计试验,以MA(1)和MA(2)模型为例进行分析,得出相关系数与自相关系数存在函数关系,证明了所提分级方法的合理性。最后将此方法应用于3个实测水文序列,得出辽河铁岭站、昌都站和戛旧站各径流序列的相依变异等级分别为无、弱、弱,所得分级结果与3个实测径流序列所在流域水文要素变化的物理成因紧密相关,进一步表明该方法的适用性。
Taking the moving average model as an example to describe the dependence components in hydrological series, a quantitative classification method of the dependence variability was proposed based on the correlation coefficient in this paper. The relationship between correlation coefficient and moving average coefficient was deduced by the formula, and then four reasonable thresholds were selected according to the principle of statistics. This method divided variation degree of dependence into five levels from weak to strong:no variability, weak variability, mid variability, strong variability and drastic variability. The first-order and second-order moving average models, MA(1) and MA(2), were taken as examples, the reasonability of the classification was verified through Monte-Carlo experiments,and the functional relationship between correlation coefficient and autocorrelation coefficient was obtained. The proposed method was used to analyze three observed hydrological time serieses, and the results showed that the dependent variation degree of annual runoff series of the Tieling Station in the Liao River was not significant(no dependence variation), and the dependent variation degree of the monthly runoff serieses in Changdu Station and Jiajiu Station were weak. The results of the classification of dependence degrees in the 3 series were closely accorded with the physically hydrological mechanisms of the watersheds, indicating the rationality and applicability of the method.
作者
霍竞群
谢平
桑燕芳
吴林倩
李雅晴
牛静怡
HUO Jingqun;XIE Ping;SANG Yanfang;WU Linqian;LI Yaqing;NIU Jingyi(State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430072,China;Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes,Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101,China)
出处
《武汉大学学报（工学版）》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2022年第8期762-772,共11页
Engineering Journal of Wuhan University
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(编号:91547205,41971040,51579181)。
关键词
水文变异
滑动平均模型
相依变异
相关系数
显著水平
量化分级
hydrological variability
moving average model
dependence variability
correlation coefficient
significance level
quantitative classification
