摘要
俄乌两国均是丝绸之路经济带的重要参与国,乌克兰危机及西方对俄制裁对“一带一路”和中欧班列带来了巨大冲击。中欧班列过境或直达乌克兰线路出现“熔断”,经由俄、白两国入欧的陆路运输通道面临切断风险,中欧班列货源大幅萎缩,“次生风险”正在蔓延;中俄合作面临贸易短期受挫,贸易投资结算难和合作预期不确定等难题;中乌合作损失严重,经贸合作成本上升等诸多短期挑战。但从长远发展看,共建“一带一路”也面临重要发展机遇,中俄合作有望进一步扩大深化,与俄罗斯主导的欧亚经济联盟合作有望取得实质性进展,人民币国际化进程加快和中乌重建机遇等。因此,需要从国家顶层设计层面谋划“一带一路”框架下面向俄罗斯、中亚、西亚乃至欧洲等经贸合作与对外开放新格局,深化中俄经贸合作,支持地方探索深度融入“一带一路”建设试点,推动中欧班列高质量发展等多方面着手,推动新形势下共建“一带一路”行稳致远。
Both Russia and Ukraine are important participants in the Silk Road Economic Belt, the Ukraine crisis and the Western sanctions against Russia have brought a huge impact on the “Belt and Road” and the China-Europe Railway Express. China-Europe Railway Express have “Circuit Breaker” in transit or direct routes to Ukraine, and the land transport corridors entering Europe via Russia and Belarus are at risk of being cut-off, the supply of China-Europe freight trains has shrunk significantly, and “secondary risks” are spreading;Sino-Russian cooperation is faced with short-term setbacks in trade, difficulties in trade and investment settlement, and uncertain cooperation expectations;there are many short-term challenges such as serious losses in Sino-Uzbekistan cooperation and rising costs of economic and trade cooperation, but from a long-term perspective, the joint construction of the “Belt and Road” also faces important development opportunities, the Sino-Russian cooperation is expected to be further expanded and deepened, the cooperation with the Eurasian Economic Union led by Russia is expected to achieve substantial progress, the process of RMB internationalization will be accelerated, and China-Uzbekistan reconstruction opportunities, etc. Therefore, it is necessary to plan a new pattern of economic and trade cooperation and opening to the outside world such as Russia, Central Asia, West Asia and even Europe under the framework of the “Belt and Road” from the national top-level design level. deepen Sino-Russian economic and trade cooperation, support local exploration of deep integration into the “Belt and Road” construction pilot, promote the high-quality development of China-Europe Railway Express and other aspects, and promote the stable and long-term development of the joint construction of the “Belt and Road” under the new situation.
出处
《全球化》
2022年第5期90-98,134,135,共11页
Globalization
基金
中国国际经济交流中心2022年度基金课题《新时期下“一带一路”风险与应对》阶段性研究成果
