摘要
近年来,数字孪生、人工智能等新技术广泛地应用在电力信息领域,参与建设信息项目的厂商也越来越多,电力信息项目建设的风险管控也日趋重要。针对电力信息项目建设中存在风险辨识不足、控制措施不强的问题,提出了一种基于蒙特卡洛的电力信息项目建设风险评估方法。对电力信息项目建设中的风险进行识别,形成典型的项目风险集;采用蒙特卡洛算法分析电力信息项目建设风险发生的概率和产生的后果;在此基础上,对项目承受的风险能力进行分析,并提供风险消除建议;在某省应用文中所提方法,其应用结果验证了基于蒙特卡洛的电力信息项目建设风险评估方法的有效性。
In recent years,new technologies such as digital bioscience and artificial intelligence are widely used in the field of power information.More and more manufacturers participate in the construction of information projects,and the risk control of power information project construction is becoming increasingly important.Aiming at the problems of insufficient risk identification and weak control measures in power information project construction,this paper proposes a risk assessment method for power information project construction based on Monte Carlo algorithm.The risks in power information project construction are identified to form a typical project risk set.Monte Carlo algorithm is used to analyze the probability and consequence of information project construction risk.On this basis,the risk tolerance of the project is analyzed,and the risk elimination suggestions are provided.The proposed method is applied in a province,and the application results verify the effectiveness of the risk assessment method of power information project construction based on Monte Carlo algorithm.
作者
王筠
胡聪
王伟
项旭
李志鹏
WANG Yun;HU Cong;WANG Wei;XIANG Xu;LI Zhipeng(State Grid Anhui Electric Power Communication Branch,Hefei 230000,China)
出处
《微型电脑应用》
2022年第9期113-116,共4页
Microcomputer Applications
关键词
电力信息
项目建设
风险评估
蒙特卡洛
风险集
power information
project construction
risk assessment
Monte Carlo algorithm
risk set
