摘要
[背景]大气颗粒物对健康的不良影响已得到证实,但关于健康影响季节性模式的研究结果并不一致。[目的]探讨天津市大气颗粒物(PM_(2.5)和PM_(10))对每日非意外死亡率和相应寿命损失年(YLL)影响的季节性变化。[方法]收集天津市2014—2019年的逐日死亡资料、大气污染资料和气象资料,采用分层分析和时间序列分析相结合的方法。通过构建广义相加模型定量地评估PM_(2.5)和PM_(10)与每日非意外死亡和YLL之间的关系,模型中控制气温、相对湿度、长期趋势、星期几效应和节假日效应等混杂因素。[结果]全年、春季、夏季和秋季时PM_(2.5)和PM_(10)对每日非意外死亡率和相应YLL的影响有统计学意义(除了春季PM_(10)对非意外死亡YLL的影响无统计学意义外),冬季时的影响均无统计学意义。全年及春、夏、秋季的PM_(2.5)和PM_(10)质量浓度每增加10µg·m^(−3),非意外死亡率及其95%CI的增加值分别为:全年0.28%(0.11%~0.44%)和0.24%(0.11%~0.36%),春季0.44%(0.11%~0.77%)和0.17%(0.00%~0.33%),夏季1.32%(0.50%~2.16%)和2.15%(1.54%~2.76%),秋季0.68%(0.30%~1.06%)和0.57%(0.28%~0.87%);相应的YLL及其95%CI的增加值分别为:全年7.41(2.42~13.07)和5.75(1.94~9.57)人年,春季13.11(3.00~23.22)和2.88(−2.82~8.59)人年,夏季34.66(11.92~57.40)和48.12(31.48~64.75)人年,秋季16.13(4.57~27.70)和12.60(3.56~21.65)人年。以全球空气质量指南(2021)中的限值为参考时,夏季PM_(2.5)和PM_(10)暴露导致的超额死亡人数和超额YLL最大,平均每日由PM_(2.5)和PM_(10)暴露导致的超额死亡人数及其95%CI分别为5.38(5.08~5.69)、8.62(7.95~9.28),超额YLL及其95%CI分别为112.23(105.79~118.67)、156.94(144.99~168.89)人年。[结论]天津市大气颗粒物对非意外死亡的影响存在明显的季节性差异,其中夏季的不良健康影响最强,提示夏季更应该加强大气颗粒物相关健康防护。
[Background]Adverse health effects associated with particulate matter have been demonstrated,but findings on seasonal variation in the health impacts are inconsistent.[Objective]To explore potential seasonal variation in particulate matter(PM_(2.5) and PM_(10))associated daily non-accidental mortality and corresponding years of life loss(YLL)in Tianjin.[Methods]The daily data of non-accidental deaths,air pollution,and meteorological factors in Tianjin from 2014 to 2019 were collected.A generalized additive model,with adjusting selected confounding factors such as temperature,relative humidity,long-term trends,day of the week,and holiday,was used to quantitatively evaluate the relationships of PM_(2.5) and PM_(10) with daily non-accidental deaths and YLL.[Results]The effects of PM_(2.5) and PM_(10) on daily non-accidental mortality and corresponding YLL were statistically significant in full year,spring,summer,and autumn(except for the effect of PM_(10) on non-accidental YLL in spring),but not statistically significant in winter.The non-accidental mortality and it's 95%CI increased by 0.28%(0.11%-0.44%)and 0.24%(0.11%-0.36%)in full year,0.44%(0.11%-0.77%)and 0.17%(0.00%-0.33%)in spring,1.32%(0.50%-2.16%)and 2.15%(1.54%-2.76%)in summer,and 0.68%(0.30%-1.06%)and 0.57%(0.28%-0.87%)in autumn for every 10μg·m−3 increase in PM_(2.5) and PM_(10) concentrations,respectively;the corresponding YLL and it's 95%CI increased by 7.41(2.42-13.07)and 5.75(1.94-9.57),13.11(3.00-23.22)and 2.88(−2.82-8.59),34.66(11.92-57.40)and 48.12(31.48-64.75),and 16.13(4.57-27.70)and 12.60(3.56-21.65)person-years,respectively.When adopting the limits in the Global Air Quality Guidelines(2021)as the reference,excess deaths and YLL caused by PM_(2.5) and PM_(10) exposure were the greatest in summer.The excess deaths and it's 95%CI were 5.38(5.08-5.69)and 8.62(7.95-9.28),and the excess YLL and it's 95%CI were 112.23(105.79-118.67)and 156.94(44.99-168.89)person-years,respectively.[Conclusion]The effects of particulate matter on non-accidental
作者
张梦楠
倪洋
曾强
ZHANG Mengnan;NI Yang;ZENG Qiang(School of Public Health,Tianjin Medical University,Tianjin 300070,China;Institute for Occupational Health,Tianjin Centers for Disease Control and Prevention,Tianjin 300011,China)
出处
《环境与职业医学》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2022年第6期652-658,共7页
Journal of Environmental and Occupational Medicine
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(81872590)
天津市医学重点学科(专科)建设项目(2021)
天津市卫生健康科技项目青年人才项目(TJWJ2021QN030)。
关键词
季节性
大气颗粒物
死亡率
寿命损失年
暴露-反应关系
seasonal
particulate matter
mortality
years of life lost
exposure-response relationship
