摘要
海上溢油事故的发生发展具有随机性和不确定性。本文从情景构建和推演的角度出发,利用知识元网络将事件内在组织结构关系进行表达,提出了基于关键情景驱动力要素的溢油事故情景模型,给出了溢油情景构建的一般方法。并通过改变不同关键知识元属性构建若干组溢油情景,利用Mike软件对溢油扩散范围进行模拟和推演,为后续应急预案和决策处置的优化提供了支持。
The occurrence and development of offshore oil spill accidents have randomness and uncertainty.From the perspective of scenario construction and inference,this paper presents a scenario model of oil spill accident based on key situational driving factors and a general method for constructing oil spill scenarios by using knowledge element network to express the internal organizational structure of events.By changing the attributes of different key knowledge elements,several groups of oil spill scenarios are constructed,and Mike software is used to simulate and infer the spread range of oil spill,which provides support for the optimization of subsequent emergency plan and decision disposal.
作者
陈卓琳
罗年学
CHEN Zhuolin;LUO Nianxue(School of Geodesy and Geomatics,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430079,China)
出处
《测绘与空间地理信息》
2022年第9期22-25,共4页
Geomatics & Spatial Information Technology
基金
国家重点研发计划(2017YFC1405304)资助。
关键词
海上溢油事故
知识元网络
情景构建
情景推演
offshore oil spill accident
knowledge element network
scenario construction
situational inference
