摘要
文章基于国别和产业层面的全球价值链数据,从广延边际与集约边际的视角,研究了FTA数量和FTA深度对中国产业增加值的非线性、多阶段影响。研究表明,FTA的签署会直接影响中国产业增加值的广延边际增长,FTA数量和FTA深度是产业增加值集约边际增长的重要推动力量;以11.9432和21.1504为FTA的深度拐点,FTA数量对中国产业增加值的影响呈现前两阶段上升、第三阶段下降的非线性作用机制,FTA深度对产业增加值的影响在三个阶段呈现依次递增的趋势;随着FTA的发展,中国产业增加值的增长极在FTA的作用下正逐渐从广延边际向集约边际转变,FTA深度的集约拉动逐渐取代FTA数量成为中国产业发展的重要推动力量;产业异质性分析发现,交通设备制造、电信、计算机、电子、电器及光学设备等中国优势明显的行业中FTA发挥的作用最大,随着FTA深度的增长,FTA在电信、金融、保险、房地产活动、租赁和其他商业活动等第三产业中发挥的作用正在逐渐增强。
Based on the global value chain data of country-level and industry-level,this paper studies the nonlinear and multi-mechanism effects of FTA quantity and FTA depth on China’s industrial added value from the perspective of extensive margin and intensive margin.The research shows that:firstly,the establishment of FTA will directly affect the extensive marginal growth of China’s industrial added value,and the number and depth of FTA are important driving forces for the intensive marginal growth of industrial added value.Scondly,when the depth inflection points of FTA are 11.9432 and 25.1504,the impact of FTA quantity on China’s industrial added value presents a nonlinear action mechanism of increasing in the first two stages and decreasing in the third stage,and the impact of FTA depth on industrial added value presents an increasing trend in the three stages.Thirdly,with the development of FTA,the growth pole of China’s industrial added value is gradually shifting from extensive margin to intensive margin.Besides,the intensive pull of FTA depth replaced the quantity of FTA and became an important driving force for China’s industrial development.Finally,industry heterogeneity analysis shows that FTA plays the largest role in industries with obvious advantages in China,such as transportation equipment manufacturing,telecommunications,computer,electronics,electrical appliances and optical equipment.With the depth growth of FTA,it gradually palys an increasing role in tertiary industries such as telecommunications,finance,insurance,real estate,leasing and other commercial activities.
作者
曲越
秦晓钰
黄海刚
夏友富
Qu Yue;Qin Xiaoyu;Huang Haigang;Xia Youfu
出处
《世界经济研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2022年第8期71-88,M0003,共19页
World Economy Studies
基金
山东省自然科学基金项目“山东自贸实验区建设与营商环境优化的互动机制和协同路径研究”(项目编号:ZR2021QG024)
山东省重点研发计划(软科学)项目“山东省科技创新路径研究——基于科技人才、科技论文与专利的视角”(项目编号:2021RKY05086)的资助。
