摘要
在我国,控诉方查证案件事实时适用概率理论较为常见,且该种材料在审判中也常被积极采纳。而与此相反,辩护方将其作为一种自行辩护的方式却少之又少。为维持与控诉方之间的动态诉讼平衡,辩护方需要探索并采取相应的辩护新手段。2016年周文斌案将“概率辩护”正式带入庭审,为辩护注入活力。但“概率辩护”本身存在诸多问题,如权重分配及赋值合理性存疑、概率计算公式选择错误与滥用、无法量化的价值判断等。在人工智能、算法等暗含概率理论的技术成为司法发展新趋势的背景下,辩护方对概率的运用也将成为必然。因此,对实践中存在的欠缺可以通过明确概率性辩护材料的辅助决策地位、提升审判人员的知识储备与专业素养、强化辩护方解释说明义务与审判方裁判说理回应制度等举措予以规制,从而真正达到实现辩护效果,准确认定案件事实的目的。
In our country,it is common for the accuser to apply probability theory when verifying the facts of a case,and this kind of material is often actively adopted in the trial.On the contrary,it is rarely used by the defense as a way of self-defense.In order to maintain the dynamic litigation balance with the accuser,the defender needs to explore and adopt corresponding new defense means.In 2016,the Zhou Wenbin case formally brought the“probabilistic defense”into the trial,which injected vitality into the defense.However,there are many problems in“probability defense”itself,such as doubts about the rationality of weight distribution and assignment,errors and abuses in the selection of probability calculation formulas,and unquantifiable value judgments.Under the background that artificial intelligence,algorithms and other technologies that imply probability theory have become a new trend of judicial development,it will be inevitable for the defense to use probability.Therefore,the deficiencies existing in practice can be regulated by making clear the auxiliary decision-making position of probabilistic defense materials,improving the knowledge reserve and professional quality of judges,strengthening the defense’s obligation to explain and the judge’s reasoning response system,and so on,so as to truly achieve the defense effect and accurately identify the facts of the case.
作者
陈梦鸽
Cheng Mengge(People’s Public Security University of China,Beijing 100038,China)
出处
《贵州警察学院学报》
2022年第4期103-113,共11页
Journal of Guizhou Police College
关键词
概率理论
司法证明
辅助决策
控辩平等
probability theory
judicial proof
assistant decision-making
equality of prosecution and defense
