摘要
在全球气候变化背景下,近年来极端降雨频发。城市人口和资产高度集中,一旦发生超出设防标准的暴雨洪水,则有可能影响整个生命线系统的正常运行,甚至危及人员生命安全。上海市受特殊地理位置和气候条件影响,极易受到台风、洪涝和风暴潮灾害及遭遇组合的影响。利用已有的上海城区洪涝仿真模型,模拟分析了郑州“7·20”特大暴雨在上海城区分别以徐汇区、黄浦区和浦东新区世纪大道为暴雨中心的3种情景重演的内涝风险分布。结果表明,从总体淹没程度看,暴雨中心位于浦东新区世纪大道较另外两种情景有所加重,3种情景下上海市城区大部分区域淹没水深超过了0.5 m,淹没面积最大达1 597.3 km^(2),积水路段总长超过800 km,中心城区道路积水尤为严重,路段最大水深达1.35 m,势必会造成严重的影响和损失。华山医院、五角场、西藏南路隧道、浦东机场和世纪大道附近等5处典型位置的水深最大分别达0.70 m、0.60 m、0.46 m、0.59 m和0.94 m。分析结果可以为上海市水旱灾害防御部门制定极端暴雨应对方案提供一定的参考。
Under the background of global climate change, extreme rainfall has occurred frequently in recent years. As the population and assets are highly concentrated in urban area, in case of rainstorm and flood exceeding the design standard, it may affect the normal operation of the whole lifeline system, even endanger the life of people. Due to the special geographical location and climatic conditions, Shanghai is extremely vulnerable to typhoon, flood and storm surge disasters and their combination. Using the existing flood and water-logging simulation model of Shanghai urban area, Zhengzhou "7 · 20" extreme rainstorm in three scenarios are simulated and analyzed with Xuhui District, Huangpu District and Century Avenue of Pudong New District as the rainstorm center respectively. The results show that, the overall inundation with the rainstorm center located in Century Avenue of Pudong New District is more serious than the other two scenarios. Under the three scenarios, the water depth of most areas of Shanghai urban area exceeds 0.5 m, and the maximum inundation area is 1597.3 km^(2). The total length of the waterlogged roads is more than 800 km, and the waterlogged road in the central urban area is particularly serious. The maximum water depth of roads is about 1.35 m,which will cause extremely serious impacts and losses. The maximum water depths at five typical locations, including Huashan Hospital, Wujiaochang, Tibet south road tunnel, Pudong Airport and the vicinity of Century Avenue, are 0.70 m,0.60 m, 0.46 m, 0.59 m and 0.94 m respectively. The analysis results can provide some reference for Shanghai flood and drought disaster prevention departments to formulate Extreme rainfall response schemes.
作者
陈升
CHEN Sheng(Shanghai Flood and Drought Disaster Prevention Technology Center,Shanghai 200050)
出处
《中国防汛抗旱》
2022年第9期56-59,86,共5页
China Flood & Drought Management
基金
长江联合基金项目(U2240203)。
