摘要
搭建稳态可持续的商品贸易网络是高质量共建一带一路的重要抓手,贸易活跃国、枢纽国及核心国是商品贸易网络有效运行的系统承载。选取2008—2019年SITC0~SITC9共十大类贸易品147个一带一路共建国家,采用QAP等社会网络分析方法,探析一带一路共建国家商品贸易网络动态演化特征与中国的引领策略。研究发现:从整体看,一带一路共建国家商品贸易网络动态演化特征表现为较强的自稳定性;从分类看,SITC5商品贸易网络最为稳定,SITC9商品贸易网络则相反。基于个体性指标,将各类商品贸易网络中的国家分为活跃国、枢纽国及核心国,其中,中国在各类商品贸易网络中起到绝对重要的引领作用。实证分析发现,完善的基础设施和明晰的贸易规则是商品贸易网络高效运行的主要因素;优良的国家治理环境有利于发挥各国比较优势,提升贸易地位;国家间经济禀赋越相近其贸易联系越紧密;而文化距离仅对部分年份的商品贸易网络产生负向影响。今后中国应拓宽与活跃国的合作范围和渠道,激发活跃国对商品贸易网络活力的带动作用,完善与枢纽国的设施联通,提升商品贸易网络资源流转效率,深化与核心国的优势产业互补,优化商品贸易网络结构,借以搭建与活跃国、枢纽国及核心国稳态可持续的商品贸易网络,高质量共建一带一路。
Building steady and sustainable commodity trade networks is an important step for the high-quality construction of the Belt and Road.Trading activists,trading hubs and core trading countries are the key bearers for the efficient operation of the commodity trade networks.The authors select 147 BRI countries in categories SITC0-SITC9 from 2008 to 2019 to explore the dynamic evolution characteristics and China’s leading strategy by using QAP and other social network analysis.It is found that:on the whole,the dynamic evolution of commodity trade networks among BRI countries is characterized by strong self-stability;and in terms of classification,SITC5 is the most stable commodity trade network,while SITC9 is the opposite.Based on individual indicators,the roles of countries in various commodity trade networks are divided into trading activists,trading hubs and core trading countries,among which China plays an absolutely important leading role in various commodity trade networks.The empirical analysis reveals that improved infrastructure and clear trade rules are the main factors for the efficient operation of the commodity trade networks;a good national governance environment helps to raise comparative advantages of each country and improve the status in the commodity trade network;the more similar economic endowments between countries are,the closer their trade links;and culture difference only has a negative impact on trade networks during several years.In the coming years,China should expand the scope and channels of cooperation with trading activists to enhance the driving effect of improving the vitality of commodity trade networks,advance the construction of infrastructure between China and other trading hubs to improve the efficiency of resource flow among various commodity trade networks,and strengthen the complementarity of advantageous industries with core trading countries to optimize the structure of commodity trade networks,so as to build steady and sustainable commodity trade networks with trading act
作者
马淑琴
戴豪杰
徐苗
MA Shu-qin;DAI Hao-jie;XU Miao(School of Economics,Zhejiang Gongshang University,Hangzhou 310018,Zhejiang,China)
出处
《中国流通经济》
CSSCI
北大核心
2022年第9期86-101,共16页
China Business and Market
基金
国家社会科学基金项目“中国与‘一带一路’国家‘双网互嵌’机制、溢出图景及其政策体系研究”(18BJY011)。
关键词
一带一路
贸易网络
动态演化特征
引领策略
社会网络分析
the Belt and Road
trade networks
dynamic evolution characteristics
leading strategy
social network analysis
