摘要
基于江西省2009~2019年农业农村发展的统计数据,构建了农田建设—农业现代化—乡村振兴之间的复合系统,利用耦合协调度和灰色预测模型进行了评价与预测。结果表明:耦合结果显示2009~2019年江西省农田建设—农业现代化—乡村振兴系统在呈最大耦合的情况下,综合评价值及耦合协调度呈飞跃式上升;灰色预测结果显示2020~2022年该系统耦合协调度将继续提高,并由良好协调升级为高度协调。由此可知,江西省农业农村发展态势较好、潜力较大,下一步要加大投资,巩固该系统的整体协同性,促进其协调发展。
Based on the agricultural and rural development data of Jiangxi Province from 2009 to 2019, a composite system among farmland construction, agricultural modernization and rural revitalization was constructed, and the coupling coordination degree and gray prediction model were used for evaluation and prediction. The results of the coupling coordination degree show that the comprehensive evaluation value and the coupling coordination degree of farmland construction-agricultural modernization-rural revitalization system in Jiangxi Province showed the greatest coupling from 2009 to 2019. The gray prediction results show that the degree of coupling and coordination of the system will continue to improve in 2020~2022, and will be upgraded from good coordination to high coordination. It can be seen that the development of agriculture and rural areas in Jiangxi Province is in a good situation and has great potential. The next step is to increase investment, consolidate the overall synergy of the system and promote coordinated development.
作者
温绍培
罗华汉
胡长战
苏梅
徐旺冬
祝利宾
李根
涂起红
WEN Shao-pei;LUO Hua-han;HU Chang-zhan;SU Mei;XU Wang-dong;ZHU Li-bin;LI Gen;TU Qi-hong(School of Earth Sciences,East China University of Technology,Nanchang 330013,China;Agricultural and Rural Bureau of Shangrao City,Shangrao 334000,China;Agricultural and Rural Bureau of Yushan County,Shangrao 334700,China;Agricultural and Rural Bureau of Guangfeng District,Shangrao 334600,China)
出处
《江西农业学报》
CAS
2022年第6期210-215,共6页
Acta Agriculturae Jiangxi
基金
江西省教育厅科技计划项目(GJJ170448)
东华理工大学博士科研启动资金(DHBK2019050)
江西省数字国土重点实验室开放基金项目(DLLJ201807)。
关键词
熵权法
耦合协调度
灰色预测
乡村振兴
Entropy method
Coupling coordination degree
Grey prediction
Rural revitalization
