摘要
基于全球恐怖主义数据库(GTD)收录的恐怖袭击事件数据,借助核密度估计法和统计分析法,对2001—2018年“一带一路”沿线国家遭受恐怖袭击时空演变情况进行分析。结果表明:从空间看,“一带一路”沿线国家遭受恐怖袭击的空间既高度集中又向四周扩散,国家交界处是恐怖袭击事件多发地带,中东和北非地区、撒哈拉以南的非洲地区遭受恐怖袭击发生较大变化;从时间看,2001—2018年“一带一路”沿线国家遭受恐怖袭击次数及伤亡人数、恐怖袭击重点目标、财产损失等状况随时间波动变化。“一带一路”沿线国家可采取加强安保力量、推进国际反恐合作、强化边境管理、进行综合治理等措施防范恐怖袭击。
Based on the data of terrorist attacks included in the Global Terrorism Database(GTD),this paper analyzes the spatio-temporal evolution situation of terrorist attacks on countries along“the Belt and Road”from 2001 to 2018 with the help of kernel density estimation and statistical analysis.The research shows that:from the perspective of space,the space of terrorist attacks on countries along“the Belt and Road”are both highly concentrated and spread around;the border of countries is a zone prone to terrorist attacks;the terrorist attacks in the Middle East and North Africa,Sub-Saharan Africa have changed significantly.From the perspective of time,the number of terrorist attacks,casualties,key targets of terrorist attacks and property losses along“the Belt and Road”from 2001 to 2018 fluctuated with time.Countries along“the Belt and Road”can promote the“the Belt and Road”initiative security construction process by strengthening border management and strengthening security forces.
作者
李继萌
吴绍忠
LI Jimeng;WU Shaozhong(National Security Institute,People’s Public Security University of China,Beijing 100038,China)
出处
《中国人民警察大学学报》
2022年第8期33-39,共7页
Journal of China People's Police University
基金
国家重点研发计划专项(**20401)
北京市哲学社会科学重点项目“北京防范恐怖袭击重点目标的潜在涉恐风险评估及预警”(18FXA003)阶段性成果。
关键词
“一带一路”
恐怖袭击
时空演变
核密度估计法
“the Belt and Road”
terrorist attack
spatio-temporal evolution
kernel density estimation
