摘要
随着全球气候变暖趋势的逐渐加剧,气候变化对粮食安全的影响引发社会各界广泛关注。文章基于1990—2020年31个省份的面板数据,在剖析气候变化与粮食安全关系的基础上,分析气候变化与粮食安全发展趋势,从粮食可用性、可获得性、可利用性、稳定性4个维度构建粮食安全指标体系,利用极差标准化法、变异系数赋权法、雷达图面积模型计算法测算粮食安全指数,实证验证气候变化对粮食安全的影响机制。研究发现:(1)积温和降水两大气候因子皆对粮食安全具有抑制作用。积温在1%的显著性水平上对粮食安全具有负向影响,降水在5%的显著性水平上对粮食安全产生不利影响。(2)农业技术的调节作用主要体现在其削弱了积温对粮食安全的抑制作用,但对降水影响粮食安全的调节效果并不明显。(3)分区域看,气候变化对粮食产销平衡区粮食安全的负向影响最大,对粮食主产区和主销区粮食安全的抑制作用不明显;农业技术在粮食主产区发挥的调节作用最强,在粮食主销区和产销平衡区发挥的调节作用不明显。为保障粮食安全,应强化应对气候变化的能力,逐步完善粮食储备管理机制,践行“藏粮于技”的战略方针,因地制宜调整粮食耕作制度和种植结构,培育优良作物品种,推进现代农业技术的转化和推广。同时,不同粮食生产功能区应充分发挥各自区域优势:主产区应推动粮食生产、经营优化,提升粮食生产综合能力;主销区应充分发挥经济、科技优势,发展集约化、现代化农业以提高粮食自给率;产销平衡区需着力提高种植户抵御风险能力和粮食生产积极性,维持区域产销平衡。
With the gradual intensification of global warming, the impact of climate change on food security has attracted widespread concerns. Based on the panel data of 31 provinces from 1990 to 2020, the article analyzed the development trends of climate change and food security based on the analysis of the relationship between climate change and food security. This article constructed a food security index system from four dimensions of food availability, accessibility, utilization, and stability, using methods of range standardization, weighing of variation coefficients, and the radar-area model analysis to calculate the food security index, and empirically verified the impact mechanism of climate change on food security. The study found that:(1) Two major climatic factors, namely accumulated temperature and precipitation, had inhibitory effects on food security. Accumulated temperature had a negative impact on food security at the 1% significance level, and precipitation had an adverse effect on food security at the 5% significance level.(2) The regulating effect of agricultural technology was mainly reflected in that it weakened the inhibitory effect of accumulated temperature on food security, but the moderating effect in the process during which precipitation affected food security was not obvious.(3) In terms of sub-regions,climate change had the greatest negative impact on food security in areas with balanced grain production and marketing, while the inhibitory effect on food security in main grain producing areas and main grain marketing areas was not obvious;agricultural technology played the strongest regulatory role in main grain producing areas, and the moderating effect in main grain marketing areas and areas with balanced grain production and marketing was not obvious. To ensure food security, it is necessary to strengthen the ability to deal with climate change, gradually improve the management mechanism of grain reserves, implement the policy of ‘food crop production strategy based on technological app
作者
苏芳
刘钰
汪三贵
尚海洋
SU Fang;LIU Yu;WANG Sangui;SHANG Haiyang(School of Economics and Management,Northwest University,Xi’an Shaanxi 710127,China;School of Economics and Management,Shaanxi University of Science and Technology,Xi’an Shaanxi 710021,China;School of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development,Renmin University of China,Beijing 100872,China;School of Business,Northwest University of Political Science and Law,Xi’an Shaanxi 710122,China)
出处
《中国人口·资源与环境》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2022年第8期140-152,共13页
China Population,Resources and Environment
基金
国家自然科学基金面上项目“脱贫山区生计效率的多尺度评估与干预机制研究”(批准号:42171281)
国家自然科学基金重点项目“脱贫地区持续发展的内生动力及政策研究”(批准号:72034007)
国家社会科学基金项目“脱贫山区农村社会组织稳定脱贫的作用机制与提升路径研究”(批准号:21BJY138)
陕西省创新人才推进计划-科技创新团队“乡村绿色发展技术与决策支持创新团队”(批准号:2021TD-35)。
关键词
粮食安全
气候变化
农业技术
区域差异
food security
climate change
agricultural technology
regional difference
