摘要
近年来,全球数字经济进入全面爆发与竞争博弈期。密切关注国外数字经济发展趋势,成为我国保持数字经济竞争力的重要支柱,也成为智库研究和服务国家宏观决策的重要内容之一。面对当前智库开展数字经济趋势研究中存在的规范化方法和政策证据使用不足问题,本文以智库双螺旋法为指导,从数字经济技术与基建、经济与社会、规则与治理三个维度认识数字经济内涵本质,并结合数字化发展在国家内部、国家之间、全球治理三个尺度的侧重点差异,提出了数字经济三大维度×三个尺度的发展趋势二维分析框架。在此框架下,研究聚焦美国、欧盟等主要国家机构和智库,收集数字经济相关政策、报告等文本资料,结合关键词分析揭示了当前全球层面以及美国、欧盟的数字经济发展热点,进而在数字经济发展趋势的二维分析框架下,研判形成了国外数字经济发展的9大趋势。最终,文章审视了我国数字经济发展面临的问题,并提出对策建议。
In recent years, the global digital economy has entered a period full of outbreak and competition. Paying close attention to the trend of digital economy in foreign countries has become an important pillar for China to maintain the competitiveness of the digital economy, and it is also one of the important topics of think tanks′ researches in serving the country′s macro decision-making. However, there are still two challenges currently for think tanks in carrying out researches on digital economy in foreign countries. One challenge is to transition from empirical to scientific research, which is necessary to break through the limitations of relying solely on expert knowledge to avoid one-sided research and judgment. The other challenge is to transition from pure academic-oriented to integrative studies fitting both academic and practical requirements, which must give full play to the role of policy, strategy and other materials in trend analysis, so as to bridge the gap between academic research and policy practice. Facing the critical period of rapid development and dynamic evolution of the digital economy, it is necessary to carry out research that combines the subjective judgment of experts with the analysis of objective materials, supported by the methodology of think tank research. To this end, this paper adopts the double helix methodology of think tanks as the theoretical and practical guide of the research, which is proposed by Prof. Pan Jiaofeng at the Institutes of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences. The double helix methodology of think tanks consists of DIIS helix and MIPS helix, in which the DIIS abstracts operational steps of think tank research as data collection, information revelation, intelligence synthesis, and solution formation and the MIPS refines the logic process of think tank research as mechanism analysis, impact analysis, policy analysis and solution formation. Guided by the double helix methodology of think tanks, this paper extracts the mechanism of the digital e
作者
吴静
张凤
Wu Jing;Zhang Feng(Institutes of Science and Development,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100190,China;School of Public Policy and Management,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China)
出处
《科研管理》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2022年第8期32-39,共8页
Science Research Management
关键词
智库双螺旋法
数字经济
发展趋势
政策分析
double helix methodology of think tanks
digital economy
development trend
policy analysis
