摘要
气候变化和城镇化使得城市洪涝风险加剧,对城市区域的洪涝损失评估有助于洪涝风险的科学管理。以广州市为例,对不同重现期暴雨损失现状进行评估,综合考虑气候变化和社会经济发展影响,对未来暴雨损失进行预测,并对洪涝应对措施展开成本效益分析,结果表明:广州市现状洪涝年均期望损失约为5.88亿元,受气候变化和社会经济发展影响,未来洪涝灾害损失会进一步增加,其中社会经济发展带来的承灾体暴露度增加影响大于气候变化影响;对广州市城市防涝工程的成本效益分析可知,对于50年一遇以下暴雨,工程措施效益较为显著,超过50年一遇的暴雨,可采取以洪水保险等经济手段转移风险。
Climate change and urbanization aggravate the risk of urban flood.The evaluation of flood loss in urban areas is helpful to the scientific management of flood risk.Taking Guangzhou as an example,this paper evaluates the current situation of rainstorm loss in different return periods and forecasts the future rainstorm loss considering the impact of climate change and socio-economic development comprehensively,and analyzes the cost-benefit of flood response measures.The results show that the average annual expected loss of flood in Guangzhou is about 588 million yuan,and the future flood disaster will be greatly affected by climate change and socio-economic development.The cost-benefit analysis of urban flood prevention project in Guangzhou shows that the benefits of engineering measures are more significant for rainstorms with return periods less than 50 years,and for rainstorms with return periods more than 50 years,economic measures such as flood insurance can be used to transfer risks.
作者
刘创
刘家宏
鲁佳慧
邵薇薇
苏鑫
LIU Chuang;LIU Jiahong;LU Jiahui;SHAO Weiwei;SU Xin(State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin,China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research,Beijing 100038,China;Engineering and Technology Research Center for Water Resources and Hydroecology of the Ministry of Water Resources,Beijing 100038,China)
出处
《中国水利水电科学研究院学报（中英文）》
北大核心
2022年第3期231-236,共6页
Journal of China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research
基金
国家自然科学基金(51739011,51879274)
国家重点研发计划课题(2016YFC0401401,2018YFC1508203)。
关键词
城市洪涝
气候变化
损失评估
成本效益
经济发展
洪水保险
urban flood
climate change
loss evaluation
cost benefit
economic development
flood insurance
