摘要
甲烷(CH_(4))作为联合国气候报告着重强调防控的第二大温室气体,其季节性变化及与关键气候因子的关联特征对全球气候变化相关研究至关重要.本研究基于GHGSat甲烷浓度产品,解析以海南岛陆地为典型热带研究区的甲烷浓度季节性变化特征,同时厘定了海南岛甲烷浓度时空分布对关键气候因子等的敏感性,并基于增强回归树(Boosted Regression Trees,BRT)分析了非生物因子如气候和地形对甲烷浓度分布的贡献度,结果表明:1)海南岛甲烷浓度在时间上具有显著的季节性变化特征,即在4—8月呈显著下降趋势,在9-12月呈显著上升趋势,而甲烷浓度的空间分布也具有明显的区域差异性,即海岸线附近甲烷浓度较高,而甲烷浓度低值分布多集中于中部地区;2)甲烷浓度与关键气候因子的线性回归模型结果显示气温与甲烷浓度呈弱正相关,而降雨与甲烷浓度存在弱负相关关系;3)BRT模拟结果显示,三种非生物因子海拔、降雨和气温对甲烷浓度分布的贡献度分别71.95%、20.52%、5.66%.本研究可为解析关键气候因子对甲烷排放的贡献度提供科学依据.
Spatio⁃temporal change characteristics and driving factors of methane(CH_(4))concentration are important to the study of global climate change.Yet few reports have been found to reveal the variation characteris⁃tics of methane concentration on different time scales and the contribution of potential climate drivers in the tropics.In this study,based on GHGsat methane concentration products,the seasonal variation characteristics of methane concentration were analyzed by taking Hainan Island as a typical tropical study area.In addition,this study deter⁃mined the sensitivity of temporal and spatial distribution of methane to climatic factors in Hainan Island,and also analyzed the contribution of climate factors and topographic factors to methane concentration by using Boosted Regression Trees(BRT).The results showed that methane concentration in Hainan Island had significant seasonal var⁃iations,which was a significant downward trend from April to August and a significant upward trend from September to December;spatially,the areas with high methane concentration were mainly clustered around coastline,while low methane concentration area was mainly distributed in the middle of Hainan Island.The results of the univariate linear regression model showed that there was a weak positive correlation between air temperature and methane con⁃centration,and a weak negative correlation between rainfall and methane concentration.The results of BRT showed that the contribution of altitude,rainfall and air temperature to methane concentration distribution is 71.95%,20.52%and 5.66%,respectively.This study can provide a scientific basis for the contribution of climatic factors to methane emissions.
作者
郑彬彬
余瑞
周晓阳
刘玉洁
孙志刚
史文娇
邓祥征
ZHENG Binbin;YU Rui;ZHOU Xiaoyang;LIU Yujie;SUN Zhigang;SHI Wenjiao;DENG Xiangzheng(College of Ecology and Environment,Hainan University,Haikou 570228;Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049)
出处
《南京信息工程大学学报(自然科学版)》
CAS
北大核心
2022年第4期429-437,共9页
Journal of Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology(Natural Science Edition)
基金
国家自然科学基金(72104065)
海南省自然科学基金(321RC472)
国家重点研发计划(2016YFA0602500)。
关键词
海南岛
甲烷浓度
季节变化
气温
降雨
Hainan Island
methane concentration
seasonal variation
temperature
rainfall