摘要
数字金融作为科技与金融深度融合的新模式、新业态,在提升金融效率的同时,也滋生了许多新风险。文章从数字金融的参与主体和外部环境出发,选取5个类别24个指标,构建数字金融风险综合压力指数,并基于2011—2020年的月度数据,采用马尔科夫区制转移模型,对我国数字金融风险进行实证分析。结果表明,我国数字金融综合风险压力指数波动大,风险阶段化特征明显,并以中低风险为主,整体风险相对可控,未来一段时间仍处于低风险状态,只在较少时段出现高风险波动。
As a new model and new format of deep integration of technology and finance,digital finance not on⁃ly improves financial efficiency,but also breeds many new risks.Starting from the participants of digital finance and the external environment,this paper selects 24 indicators in five categories to construct a comprehensive pressure in⁃dex of digital finance risk.Based on the monthly data from 2011 to 2020,the Markov regional system transfer model is used to conduct an empirical analysis of digital finance risks.The results show that the comprehensive risk pres⁃sure index of China’s digital finance fluctuates greatly,and the risk is characterized by distinct stages,in which it is dominated by medium and low risks,the overall risk is relatively controllable;and it will still be in a low risk state for a period of time in the future,except for high risk fluctuation appearing only in a few periods of time.
作者
谭中明
陈文书
卜亚
TAN Zhong-ming;CHEN Wen-shu;BU Ya(School of Finance and Economics,Jiangsu University,Zhenjiang 212013,China;School of Economics and Management,Jiangsu University of Science and Technology,Zhenjiang 212003,China)
出处
《经济论坛》
2022年第8期49-58,共10页
Economic Forum
基金
国家社会科学基金项目“金融科技创新与监管的激励相容机制及政策研究”(21BJY148)。
关键词
数字金融
综合压力指数
主成分分析
MSBVAR模型
Digital finance
Comprehensive pressure index
Principal component analysis
MSBVAR model
