摘要
在注水管道的风险评价结果的基础上,针对T-S模糊故障树的底事件,给出相应的解决措施,并结合决策准则、子集、决策树等,对注水管线决策成本和失效后果量化,建立了“优先控制风险,再对比经济性”的决策优化数学模型。计算了每种决策下的风险等级,绘制决策树,计算并对比风险处于可接受范围的各决策的损失期望值,确定最优决策方案。应用此方法对某注水管道进行了维护决策优化,达到了较好的维护效果。
Based on the risk assessment results of water injection pipeline, corresponding solutions were given for the bottom event of T-S fuzzy fault tree. Combined with decision criteria, subsets, decision trees, etc., the decision-making cost and failure consequences of water injection pipelines were quantified, and a decision-making optimization mathematical model of “prioritizing risk control, and then comparing economics” was established. The risk level of each decision was calculated, the decision tree was drawn, the loss expectation value of each decision with an acceptable risk was calculated and compared, and the optimal decision plan was determined. This method was used to optimize the maintenance decision of a water injection pipeline, and achieved a fairly better maintenance effect.
作者
王强
陈健飞
陈丽娜
刘庆福
仇东泉
赵杰
WANG Qiang;CHEN Jianfei;CHEN Lina;LIU Qingfu;CHOU Dongquan;ZHAO Jie(Technology Inspection Center of Shengli Oilfield,Dongying 257000,China;Offshore Petroleum Engineering Technology Inspection Co.,Ltd.,Dongying 257000,China;Dongying Special Equipment Inspection Institute,Dongying 257000,China;Shengli Oilfield Inspection and Evaluation Co.,Ltd.,Dongying 257000,China)
出处
《腐蚀与防护》
CAS
北大核心
2022年第4期47-53,共7页
Corrosion & Protection
基金
中国石油化工股份有限公司装备与储运处课题(319022-14)。
关键词
决策树
期望值
风险管控
注水管道
决策优化
decision tree
expected value
risk control
water injection pipe
decision optimization
