摘要
目的:分析四川省2011-2020年各年龄段人群肺结核流行特征与变化趋势。方法:通过《中国疾病预防控制信息系统》子系统《传染病报告信息管理系统》及《基本信息系统》收集四川省2011-2020年的肺结核患者报告发病数据和人口数据,利用JoinPoint回归模型进行趋势性分析。结果:四川省2011-2020年共计报告肺结核患者56.73万例,报告发病率(简称“发病率”)从2011年的81.14/10万(65250例)下降至2020年的55.19/10万(46218例),年递降率为4.19%,标化发病率呈下降趋势[年度变化百分比(annual percent change,APC)和平均变化百分比(average annual percent change,AAPC)均为-4.0%(95%CI:-4.7%~-3.3%)]。平均发病年龄从2011年的44.19岁逐年升至2020年的45.45岁,每年增加0.104岁(β=0.104,P=0.008)。10年年均发病率最高的为≥65岁组(96.94/10万,99961例),发病率年龄高峰从2011年的≥65岁(113.08/10万,9694例)前移至2020年的15~24岁(89.77/10万,8688例)。25岁及以上人群发病率呈下降趋势,25~34、35~44、45~54、55~64、≥65岁组的发病率分别从2011年的87.83/10万(8855例)、77.89/10万(12596例)、97.37/10万(9778例)、121.07/10万(11308例)和113.08/10万(9694例)下降至2020年的62.85/10万(6663例)、40.57/10万(4754例)、58.23/10万(8376例)、62.67/10万(6543例)和73.43/10万(9686例),AAPC分别为-4.5%(95%CI:-7.8%~-1.1%)、-7.7%(95%CI:-8.9%~-6.6%)、-4.9%(95%CI:-8.9%~-0.8%)、-6.8%(95%CI:-8.0%~-5.6%)和-4.6%(95%CI:-5.8%~-3.4%)。2015-2020年0~14岁儿童的发病率呈上升趋势[2015年发病率为6.96/10万(923例),2020年发病率为10.98/10万(1508例)],APC为9.2%(95%CI:4.1%~14.4%)。结论:四川省肺结核疫情近年总体下降,但25岁以下儿童和青少年肺结核发病率呈上升趋势,应引起高度重视,同时还应关注65岁及以上老年人肺结核发病情况。
Objective:To analyze the epidemic characteristics and trends of pulmonary tuberculosis(PTB)in different age groups in Sichuan from 2011 to 2020.Methods:The reported incidence data and population data of PTB patients in Sichuan Province from 2011 to 2020 were collected through the Infectious Disease Reporting Information Management System and Basic Information System,the subsystem of China Disease Prevention and Control Information System,and the trend analysis was carried out using the JoinPoint regression model.Results:From 2011 to 2020,567300 PTB cases were reported in Sichuan.The reported incidence rate decreased from 81.14/100000(65250 cases)in 2011 to 55.19/100000(46218 cases)in 2020 with the annual decreasing rate of 4.19%,the standardized incidence rate showed a downward trend(annual percent change,APC),the APC and average annual percent change(AAPC)both were-4.0%(95%CI:-4.7%--3.3%).The average onset age increased from 44.19 years in 2011 to 45.45 years in 2020 with increasement of 0.104 years every year(β=0.104,P=0.008).During the 10 years,the incidence rate of PTB was the highest in people aged 65 or above(96.94/100000,99961 cases).The peak age of incidence rate moved from 65 years(113.08/100000,9694 cases)in 2011 to 15-24 years(89.77/100000,8688 cases)in 2020.The incidence rate of people aged 25 and above showed a downward trend.The incidence rates of 25-34,35-44,45-54,55-64,and 65 years and above decreased from 87.83/100000(8855 cases),77.89/100000(12596 cases),97.37/100000(9778 cases),121.07/100000(11308 cases)and 113.08/100000(9694 cases),respectively in 2011 to 62.85/100000(6663 cases),40.57/100000(4754 cases),58.23/100000(8376 cases),62.67/100000(6543 cases)and 73.43/100000(9686 cases),respectively in 2020.The AAPCs were-4.5%(95%CI:-7.8%--1.1%),-7.7%(95%CI:-8.9%--6.6%),-4.9%(95%CI:-8.9%--0.8%),-6.8%(95%CI:-8.0%--5.6%)and-4.6%(95%CI:-5.8%--3.4%),respectively.The incidence rate of children aged 0-14 years increased from 6.96/100000(923 cases)in 2015 to 10.98/100000(1508 cases)in 2020 with the APC of
作者
李婷
刘双
逯嘉
王丹霞
夏岚
Li Ting;Liu Shuang;Lu Jia;Wang Danxia;Xia Lan(Institution of Tuberculosis Prevention and Control,Sichuan Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Chengdu 610041,China)
出处
《中国防痨杂志》
CAS
CSCD
2022年第8期808-814,共7页
Chinese Journal of Antituberculosis
关键词
结核
肺
发病率
年龄分布
数据说明
统计
Tuberculosis,pulmonary
Incidence
Age distribution
Data interpretation,statistical
