摘要
鸟类对生态系统变化较为敏感,是衡量生态环境质量变化的一种重要指示生物;气候变化已成为栖息地丧失的重要原因之一,对鸟类的迁徙、繁殖有一定的影响。为了探究未来气候变化条件下鸟类栖息地适宜性分布,以洞庭湖流域为研究区域,结合收集到的382个鸟类出现点数据、遥感影像数据、气候变化数据等,基于Maxent模型方法,综合分析驱动洞庭湖流域鸟类分布的气候因素,并预测2050年气候不同情景下鸟类栖息地适宜性分布特征。结果显示,历史情景下洞庭湖流域鸟类的适宜性栖息地为多个集中分布区组成的带状区域,而在未来情景下栖息地由以前的带状分布逐渐演变为团状分布。在2050年RCP2.6、RCP4.5排放情景下,适宜栖息地面积有所下降,占研究区域总面积的比例从历史情景的9.43%分别降至9.26%、8.91%;而在RCP8.5排放情景下面积有所增加,占研究区域总面积的比例增加至10.22%。从适宜性分布来看,栖息地变得更加集中,未来情景下鸟类栖息地适宜性在3种排放情景下略高于历史情景,适宜性RCP8.5情景(33.12%)>RCP2.6情景(32.87%)>RCP4.5情景(32.74%)>历史情景(31.33%)。研究结果可为气候变化条件下鸟类生物多样性保护提供理论支撑。
Birds are sensitive to changes in habitat and serve as an important indicator of altered environmental conditions.Climate change has become an important cause of habitat loss,consequently threatening bird migration and reproduction.Habitat suitability models such as the maximum entropy(Maxent)model allow accurate analysis of the spatial distribution of suitable habitat for a certain species and provides important theoretical support for predicting the effect of climate change on the species and for conserving rare and endangered species.In this study,Dongting Lake basin was selected as the research area,and we predicted the distribution characteristics of suitable bird habitat under three typical emission scenarios(RCP 2.6,RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5)in 2050 using the Maxent model.In addition,factors driving habitat alteration were comprehensively analyzed.Maxent model development included data on the distribution of 382 bird occurring spots,data from remote sensing imagery and climate data for Dongting Lake basin for the period 1974-2000.The historical scenario(1974-2000)and three emission scenarios in year 2050 all gave area under the curve(AUC)values for the Maxent model above 0.8,indicating high model reliability.Results show that,historically,suitable bird habitat comprised 9.43%of Dongting Lake basin area,concentrated in zones that gradually change to a more lumpy distribution under future emission scenarios.In 2050,the area of the suitable habitat decreases from 9.43%of the study area to 9.26%and 8.91%under scenarios RCP 2.6 and RCP 4.5,and increases to 10.22%under scenario RCP 8.5.Overall,compared with historical conditions,bird habitat suitability under the three typical emission scenarios in 2050 was slightly higher,with suitability following the order:RCP8.5(33.12%)>RCP2.6(32.87%)>RCP4.5(32.74%)>historical scenario(31.33%).The distribution of suitable habitat correlates closely with the distribution of lakes.Seasonal variation of temperature and the amount of precipitation in dry season were the primary factor
作者
袁玉洁
邹曦
史方
高翔
胡莲
张志永
YUAN Yu-jie;ZOU Xi;SHI Fang;GAO Xiang;HU Lian;ZHANG Zhi-yong(Key Laboratory of Ecological Impacts of Hydraulic-Projects and Restoration of Aquatic Ecosystem of Ministry of Water Resources,Institute of Hydroecology,Ministry of Water Resources and Chinese Academy of Sciences,Wuhan 430079,P.R.China;College of Environmental Science and Engineering,Hunan University,Key Laboratory of Environmental Biology and Pollution Control,Ministry of Education,Changsha 410082,P.R.China)
出处
《水生态学杂志》
CSCD
北大核心
2022年第4期56-62,共7页
Journal of Hydroecology
基金
国家自然科学基金(51809184)
长江水科学研究联合基金(U2040205)。
