摘要
文章基于2005—2020年中国与23个国家相关数据,运用扩展的引力模型,分析了经济政策不确定性对中国农产品贸易的影响。结果表明:国内经济政策不确定性对中国农产品出口贸易具有显著抑制作用,尤其是在中国对新兴市场和发展中经济体农产品出口贸易中的抑制作用更大;贸易对象国经济政策不确定性对中国农产品进口贸易具有显著促进作用;贸易对象国经济政策不确定性在中国与新兴市场和发展中经济体的农产品贸易中所起的促进作用大于中国与发达经济体农产品贸易。在此基础上,提出减少国内经济政策的短期调整频率、密切关注主要贸易对象国经济政策的变动情况、鼓励农产品出口企业技术创新、深化区域经贸合作、加快培育和发展农产品贸易新业态新模式等政策建议,以促进中国农产品贸易持续健康发展。
Based on the relevant data of China and 23 countries from 2005 to 2020,this paper uses the extended gravity model to analyze the impact of economic policy uncertainty on agricultural trade of China.The results show that the domestic economic policy uncertainty has the significant inhibitory effect on agricultural export trade of China,especially in the agricultural export trade from China to the emerging markets and developing economies;The economic policy uncertainty of trade partner countries has the significant promoting effect on agricultural import trade of China;The economic policy uncertainty of trade partner countries plays a greater role in promoting the agricultural trade between China and emerging markets and developing economies than that between China and developed economies.On this basis,the paper puts forward some policy suggestions to promote the sustainable and healthy development of agricultural trade of China,such as to reduce the short-term adjustment frequency of domestic economic policies,to pay close attention to the changes of economic policies of major trade partner countries,to encourage technological innovation of agricultural export enterprises,to deepen regional economic and trade cooperation and to accelerate the cultivation and development of new forms and models of agricultural trade and so on.
作者
邵红岭
张辰利
SHAO Hong-ling;ZHANG Chen-li(College of Economics and Managment,Hebei Agricultural University,Baoding Hebei 071000,China)
出处
《技术经济与管理研究》
北大核心
2022年第7期90-94,共5页
Journal of Technical Economics & Management
基金
河北省教育厅高等学校人文社会科学研究项目(SY202138)。
关键词
经济政策不确定性
农产品出口
农产品进口
引力模型
Economic policy uncertainty
Agricultural products export
Agricultural products import
Gravity model
