摘要
我国推行了大量旨在促进落后地区经济发展的优惠政策,评估这些政策的效果对于进一步优化政策设计具有重要意义,而现实中要剥离出这些政策效应面临多重困难。原中央苏区振兴计划将优惠政策瞄准到县,这些县集中于赣南、闽西和粤北,能够在邻近区域内找到一些在地理条件、初始发展水平相似的县作为对照组,从而为优惠政策的经济发展效应评估提供一个接近于准自然试验的研究机会。基于DID模型回归发现瞄准特定区域的优惠政策对于GDP增长率具有显著的正效应,提高了这些地区的投资率、加快了工业化进程;但政策对于这些地区自生能力的提升效应是负的,表现为政策实施后更高的财政缺口规模、更低的投资效益以及更高的人口外流率。稳健性分析能够进一步验证上述两个观点。研究的政策启示在于,对于欠发达地区的扶持应增加投资且更多地转向提升其自生能力。
As China has carried out a large number of preferential policies aimed at promoting the economic development of backward areas,it is of great significance to evaluate,for further optimization of policy design,the effects of these policies.However,it is difficult to assess the net effect of these policies in reality.The revitalization policies targeted to the counties of the Central Soviet Area,places mainly clustered in southern Jiangxi,western Fujian and northern Guangdong.Such geographical location enables to find a control group,counties with similar conditions,thus providing a research opportunity close to quasi-natural experiments for the evaluation the preferential policies.This paper,based on DID model,finds that the preferential policies have a significant positive effect on the GDP growth rate,the main mechanism of which lies in the promotion of the investment rate and the industrialization in these areas.But the regional biased policy has a negative effect,i.e.higher scale of fiscal gap,lower investment efficiency and higher population outflow rate,on the regional endogenous capacity.The robust test further confirms these two views.The policy implication of this study is that the support for backward areas should shift to enhance the regional endogenous capacity rather than increase investment.
作者
罗连发
方乔梅
刘沛瑶
LUO Lian-fa;FANG Qiao-mei;LIU Pei-yao(Institute of Quality Development Strategy, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China)
出处
《广西师范大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》
2022年第4期117-130,共14页
Journal of Guangxi Normal University(Philosophy and Social Sciences Edition)
基金
国家社会科学基金重大项目“新发展阶段伟大实践与发展经济学理论创新研究”(21&ZD071)。
关键词
优惠政策
经济发展
财政转移支付
自生能力
原中央苏区振兴政策
欠发达地区
regional biased policy
economic development
financial transfer payments
endogenous capacity
revitalization policies of the former Central Soviet Area
backward areas
