摘要
利用云南陆良农业气象观测站(103°37′E,24°59′N)2010-2020年烤烟移栽期、团棵期、现蕾期、工艺成熟期4个生育期普遍期出现的日期数据、同期逐日平均气温和10 cm地温资料,建立烤烟不同生育阶段的线性活动积温(AA)模型、线性有效积温模型(AE模型<使用气温>和AEG模型<使用10 cm地温>)及沈国权非线性积温模型(NLM),并对比分析这些模型模拟烤烟发育期的效果。结果表明:(1)NLM模型对历年的模拟值与历年实况平均值的偏差最小;(2)在移栽—团棵期,NLM模型模拟效果最好,稳定性最高;团棵—现蕾期以AEG模型的稳定性更好,生育期天数模拟准确率最高,AE模型在工艺成熟期的稳定性最好且生育期天数模拟准确率最高。4个模型模拟团棵—现蕾期的稳定性都优于模拟其他发育期。(3)4个模型中NLM模拟烤烟生育期天数的误差最小,对陆良烤烟气候异常年份的模拟偏差最小。
Based on the observational data of the four growth and development period(transplanting,resettling,squaring and mature period)of flue-cured tobacco in Luliang Agrometeorological Observation Station(103°37′E,24°59′N)during 2010-2020,as well as the data of the daily average temperature and 10-cm ground temperature at the same period,four accumulated temperature models are used to simulate the time duration of the crop′s different growth and development phases and comparatively analyzed,which included a linear active accumulated temperature model(AA),two linear effective accumulated temperature models(AE model based on daily average temperature,AEG model based on 10-cm ground temperature),and Shen Guo-quan′s nonlinear accumulated temperature model(NLM).The results showed as follows:Firstly,NLM model had the minimum deviation between its simulated values and actual values in terms of the average over the years.Secondly,with regard to the stage from transplanting to resettling of flue-cured tobacco,the simulation effect of NLM model was the best and its stability was optimal.As for the stage from resettling to squaring,AEG model had better stability and the highest simulation accuracy rate.Meanwhile,AE model performed best in simulating effect and stability during the mature period of tobacco.By contrast,all above-mentioned models simulated in high-point stability during the stage from resettling to squaring.Finally,the simulation deviation of NLM model was smallest among the four models in the special climate years.
作者
杨炳玉
浦吉存
舒康宁
陈焘
邱春丽
Yang Bingyu;Pu Jicun;Shu Kangning;Chen Tao;Qiu Chunli(Yunnan Meteorological Information Center,Kunming,Yunnan 650000,China;Qujing Meteorological Bureau,Qujing,Yunnan 655000,China;Dali Meteorological Bureau,Dali,Yunnan 671000,China;Qujing Tobacco Company,Qujing,Yunnan 655000,China)
出处
《山地农业生物学报》
2022年第4期41-48,共8页
Journal of Mountain Agriculture and Biology
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(41665004)
中国烟草总公司云南省公司2020年科技项目(重点专项2020530000241023)。
关键词
烤烟
积温模型
10
cm地温
发育期模拟
flue-cured tobacco
accumulated temperature
10 cm ground temperature
simulating of developmental phase
