摘要
钾盐是保障国家粮食安全的重要战略性矿产资源。从国家安全视角出发,构建了中国钾盐资源安全评估与预警指标体系,运用常权和变权评价模型评估了2001—2020年中国钾盐资源安全,并对2021—2030年钾盐资源安全进行预警。结果表明:2001—2007年由于储采比和储量指数较低,进口依存度和进口集中度较高,钾盐资源安全风险程度较高,处于不安全状态。2008—2020年随着储采比增加,进口依存度和进口集中度降低,风险程度稍有下降,处于基本安全或安全状态。2021—2030年中国钾盐资源安全预警评估值在5.08~6.28范围内,预警等级呈现黄色预警—蓝色预警—黄色预警的变化趋势。从风险提示来看,储量指数、进口依存度和进口集中度为影响中国钾盐资源安全的公共风险因素,需注意防范。
Potash is an important strategic mineral resource to ensure national food security.From the perspective of national security,we have constructed a security assessment and early warning index system for potash resources,evaluating the security of potash resources from 2001 to 2020 using constant weight and variable weight evaluation models.Based on this,we also conducted an early warning analysis from 2021 to 2030.The results show that from 2001 to 2007,potash resources have a high degree of security risk and are in a state of insecurity due to low reserve-production ratio and reserve index and high import dependence and concentration.With an increase in the reserve-production ratio and the decrease in import dependence and concentration,the degree of security risk of potash resources decreased slightly and is in the safe state from 2008 to 2020.The security early warning assessment value of potash resources is within the range of 5.08~6.28 from 2021 to 2030,and the early warning level shows a changing trend from blue to yellow and then to blue.From the perspective of risk warning,the public risk factors affecting the security of potash resources are the reserve index,import dependence,and concentration,which should be prevented.
作者
罗婷
张永庆
郑明贵
董娟
LUO Ting;ZHANG Yongqing;ZHENG Minggui;DONG Juan(Business School,University of Shanghai for Science and Technology,Shanghai 200093,China;Research Center of Mining Development,Jiangxi University of Science and Technology,Ganzhou Jiangxi 341000,China;School of Management,University of Science and Technology of China,Hefei 230026,China)
出处
《地球科学进展》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2022年第6期575-587,共13页
Advances in Earth Science
基金
国家社会科学基金重点项目“中国战略性矿产资源国家安全评估与预警系统研究(2020-2050)”(编号:18AGL002)
国家自然科学基金重点项目“大数据环境下的评价理论、方法和应用”(编号:71631006)资助.
关键词
钾盐
资源安全
评估
预警
Potash
Resource security
Assessment
Early warning.
