摘要
为研究极端高潮位对上海吴淞口设计高潮位(千年一遇)的影响,采用无偏估计计算初值、P-Ⅲ型曲线目估适线,研究了吴淞口1985--2018年逐年设计高潮位变化。结果表明9711和0012台风期间产生的极端高潮位分别提升设计高潮位0.184m和0.128m。对未来情景,采用MCMC和Metropolis-Hastings抽样生成1000组与历史序列趋势一致的样本序列,研究了未来30年出现0次、1次、2次极端高潮位对2050年吴淞口设计高潮位的影响,结果较现状(2018)6.58m分别约提升2cm、14cm和24cm。平均每遇到一次极端高潮位,吴淞口设计高潮位上升约10-12cm。
To research the influence of extreme high tide level on the design high tide level(once in a thousand years) at Shanghai Wusong estuary, this paper studied its annual design high tide level from 1985 to 2018 by using unbiased estimation to calculate the initial value of P-Ⅲ statistics. The results show that the extreme high tide level generated during Typhoon 9711 and0012 increase by 0.184m and 0.128m respectively. For the future scenario, MCMC and metropolis Hastings are used to generate1000 groups of sample sequences that are consistent with the trend of historical series, and analyze the influence of three different times of extreme high tide levels on the design high tide level in 2050 for the next 30 years, the results are about 2cm, 14cm and 24cm higher than the current 6.58m(2018). On average, for every extra extreme high tide that encountered, the design high tide level rises about 10-12cm.
作者
刘宏宽
LIU Hongkuan(Shanghai Water Engineering Design and Research Instiute Company Limited,Shanghai 200061,China;Shanghai Engineering Research Center of Coastal Zones,Shanghai 200061,China)
出处
《水文》
CSCD
北大核心
2022年第3期27-31,共5页
Journal of China Hydrology
基金
上海市科学技术委员会科研资助项目(19DZ1201500,20DZ1204400)
上海市水务局科研资助项目(沪水科2018-01)。
