摘要
文章立足经济人、社会人、政治人假说,从盈利动机、互惠动机、恐惧动机视角,利用1965—2019年79个国家相关数据,分析市场、政府、国际竞争共同作用下,新能源替代化石能源的经济、社会、政治三维驱动效应。结果显示,化石能源价格正向、环境污染和能源自给度负向影响新能源替代进程,且研究区间内环境污染对新能源替代的倒逼作用最为显著,说明新一轮能源革命初期,全球环境治理及减排意愿驱动新能源产业发展,但各国“碳减排”博弈增加了新能源替代的复杂性,特别是部分发达国家在承担全球环境治理责任方面出现意见分歧,全球温室气体减排尚未达成共识,依靠“减排承诺”倒逼新能源替代的前景不容乐观。进一步异质性分析发现,能源禀赋先天优势与经济积累后天优势分别影响新能源“量”与“质”的替代进程,能源禀赋先天优势延缓了新能源替代化石能源的进程,而后天优势则使高收入国家凭借制度、技术、话语权等,更易占据新能源产业链的绿色、高附加值环节。与此同时,各国能源战略影响其新能源“质”与“量”的替代程度,不同战略选择下,各国新能源发展速度、领域及纠偏能力各不相同,其中由分布式、消费端衔接等共同构成的微观主体绿色发展意愿,有利于推动新能源产业的高质量发展。当前,中国在新能源领域虽然后发先至,但仍面临新能源发展基础薄弱、产业链低端锁定等深层次的矛盾与问题,应以实现新能源自主创新为着力点,推进理念创新、制度创新及机制创新,实现能源替代的高质量跨越,赢得国际低碳竞争力。
Based on the hypotheses of economic man,social man,and political man,this article studied the economic,social,and political driving effects of alternative new energy sources for fossil fuels from the perspectives of profit motivation,reciprocity motivation,and fear motivation,using relevant statistical data of 79 countries from 1965 to 2019.The results showed that fossil energy prices positively affected the process of new energy substitution,but environmental pollution and energy self-sufficiency negatively affected it.And the effect of environmental pollution was more significant in the research range.These results further showed that at the beginning of the new energy revolution,global environmental governance would drive the development of new energy.However,the carbon emission reduction game played by various countries increased the complexity of new energy substitution.In particular,some developed countries had differences in undertaking the responsibility of global environmental governance.There was no consensus on global greenhouse gas emission reduction.The prospect did not seem to be optimistic relying on the emission reduction commitment to enforce new energy substitution.Further heterogeneity analysis found that the inherent advantages of energy endowment affected the ‘quantity’ in the new energy substitution process,while the acquired advantages of economic accumulation affected its ‘quality’.The inherent advantages delayed the process of new energy substitution,while the acquired advantages made it easier for high-income countries to occupy the green and high value-added links of the new energy industry chain by virtue of system,technology,and discourse power.At the same time,the energy strategies affected the ‘quality’ and ‘quantity’ in the process of new energy substitution.Since different countries adopted different substitution strategies,they acted differently in terms of development speed,field,and correction abilities.Among them,the green development willingness of micro subje
作者
郭扬
GUO Yang(School of Economic and Management,Xinjiang University,Urumqi Xinjiang 830046,China)
出处
《中国人口·资源与环境》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2022年第5期14-22,共9页
China Population,Resources and Environment
基金
新疆社会科学基金项目“新时代新疆高质量发展的动力转换研究(批准号:21BJY041)”
新疆自然科学基金项目“新疆能源转型与低碳发展研究(批准号:2018D01C052)”
新时代党的治疆方略理论与实践研究项目“中美贸易摩擦下新疆产业发展对策研究(批准号:2021ZJFLY56)”
新疆大学科研启动项目“碳中和背景下中国新能源高质量发展路径研究(批准号:BS202103)”。
关键词
替代
新能源
化石能源
substitution
new energy
fossil fuel
