摘要
在新型冠状病毒疫情冲击后,湖北省能否实现既定的碳减排目标是当下需要关注的热点问题。基于湖北省的能源消费总量和结构现状,文章使用协整回归和马尔科夫链分析并预测了2020-2025年湖北省的GDP增长、能源消费和碳排放情况,按照疫情对地区经济冲击的不同情况划分了基准情景、低速情景和高速情景,对碳排放强度和碳排放达峰进行了情景分析。结果表明不同情景下湖北省“十四五”期末碳排放总量应控制在46 178.99万t~49 346.39万t之间,碳排放强度累计下降率方可达到19.62%~32.60%。只有在政府积极作为的中高速发展情景下,通过产业结构的优化,湖北省才能在“十四五”期间实现碳排放强度降低20%的目标。不论是何种情景,新冠疫情不会影响湖北省人均碳排放的达峰,2030年之前可以实现峰值目标。
This paper discussed the current hot topics regarding whether Hubei Province can attain the target of carbon emission reduction in the wake of the impacts of novel coronavirus epidemic(COVID-19). To address the issue, analysis was made based on the total energy consumption and structural status of the Province, and the methods of Co integration regression and the Markov chain analysis were used to predict the growths of GDP, energy consumption and carbon emissions in Hubei Province over the coming period of 2020 to 2025. In addition, according to the different impacts of the epidemic on regional economy, three scenarios--the baseline scenario, low-speed scenario and high-speed scenario, were divided, and the carbon emission intensity and carbon emission peak were analyzed, respectively. The analysis concluded that under different scenarios, the total carbon emission of Hubei Province at the end of the 14th Five Year Plan period must be controlled within the range of 46 178.99 to 49 346.39 million tons, and in this way, the cumulative declining rate of carbon emission intensity can reach 19.62%~32.60%;and only through the active action taken by the government, with the scenario of medium to high speed economic development and optimizing the industrial structure can the Province attain the target of reducing carbon emission intensity by 20% in the 14th Five Year Plan period. In conclusion, under any of the above three scenarios, COVID-19 will not negatively affect attaining the target of the peak per capita carbon emission in Hubei Province,and the target is expected to reach prior to the year 2030.
作者
傅振仪
李雅薇
FU Zhenyi;LI Yawei(School of Economics and Management,China University of Geosciences,Wuhan 430078,China)
出处
《环境科学与技术》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2022年第2期221-227,共7页
Environmental Science & Technology
基金
省级大学生创新创业训练计划项目(S202010491120)。
关键词
能源消费量
能源消费结构
碳排放
碳排放强度
energy consumption
energy consumption structure
carbon emissions
carbon emission intensity
